SUWAYDA, Syria (North Press) – Some activists and political analysts believe that the Russian and Iranian roles, in addition to those of local groups in competition for military control of Syria’s Suwayda, could create different scenarios regarding the area’s fate.
They also referred to an Israeli effect on Russian role there, though it appears that the Syrian government faces difficult alternatives in the upcoming political negotiations.
The governorate of Suwayda, located in Syria’s south, is home to the country’s Druze minority, an ethnoreligious group which practices a monotheistic Abrahamic religion and speaks the Arabic language. Historically, the region has been mostly pro-government, even from the start of the country’s nine-year-crisis and civil war.
The government security apparatus supervises pro-government facilities and councils in Suwayda, in addition to intense presence of local groups, according to local activists.
Sami Warhani, a civilian activist from Suwayda, told North Press that there are several scenarios regarding Suwayda’s fate in the upcoming Syrian roadmap.
He believes that there are three main possible scenarios, the first of which would be the agreement of local groups to settlements and reconciliations with the Syrian government, and the possibility of young people performing compulsory and reserve service within an alternate branch of the Syrian army.
This may not be feasible because youth in compulsory service do not trust the government, he added.
The second one is “an Israeli-Russian understanding which prevents the Syrian army from controlling Suwayda militarily, and allows the Druze community to decide and manage the region’s fate.”
Warhani believed that “it may expand Russian influence in Suwayda, which it may use to empower its presence in Syria’s south,” and added that this solution will meet with great discontent because people “consider Russia an occupier and Israel an enemy.”
Warhani believes that the third scenario, of maintaining the status quo until progress is made in the final political solution to the Syrian crisis, is the most likely one.
He expected that local groups who protect the community now will benefit from the final political solution.
Syrian government forces are deployed on the outskirts of Suwayda, while the security apparatus is intensely deployed inside the city and takes part in the running of government institutions, according to a retired soldier from Suwayda who preferred to be unidentified.
Akram Zaytona, affiliated with the Men of Dignity Druze milita, believes that the current struggle of running Suwayda militarily lies in the hidden conflict between the Russian-backed Fifth Legion and Iranian-backed Fourth Legion, both of whom are affiliated with the government.
He pointed out that “the struggle to control Suwayda and Daraa is clear through the repeated Russian official visits to convince local groups to join the Fifth Legion, and their hinting at the possibility of allowing the Druze to have an autonomous government.”
The Fourth Legion, which is funded financially and militarily by Iran, “is still blocking the Russian project and moreover Israel, not fearing partition, but maintaining Iranian influence,” Zaytona said.
He added, “Recently, the National Defense Legion has been formed, that was trained by Lebanese Hezbollah inside the Ora camps to face the Fifth Legion.”
The analyses indicate that the Syrian government and Russia will settle the Suwayda issue after the scene becomes clear in northwest and northeast Syria, “but this does not mean military decisiveness, due to the internal and international considerations”, according to Zaytona.