Prof. Bashar Jarrar
Perhaps I wasn’t the only one to expect John Bolton’s dismissal (not resignation) from his mission three months ago. I expected that in response to a question in a live interview about Washington’s handling of the hot Middle Eastern files, primarily Iran and Syria, as well as the so-called the Deal of the Century (Trump peace plan).
Things have been clear to me in terms of President Donald Trump’s intention to win a second term of office to carry out his key election promises in 2016.
Trump’s Mill, to speak, is based on two millstones: “The United States first” as a goal for everything the administration represents and aspires to it in the White House, and complete transactions with the least losses and the greatest possible profits to achieve that goal.
Bolton was an admiration for Trump from the start, and he bet on him during the election campaign despite his closeness to the administration and family of George HW Bush and his son.
Both didn’t shy from the alliance, despite the tension between Trump and the Bush family, due to a campaign rift in which Trump didn’t provide the late Barbara Bush in criticizing what he called the reliance of the then Republican candidate (Jeb Bush) on the weight, legacy and acquaintances of his father and brother.
At the last minute, Trump backed away from keeping Bolton on the list of candidates for the secretary of state and bet everyone that he retains a big and important position for him.
He was the third person to be chosen as national security adviser, a position not subject to confirmation by the Congress, as it is a minor team in the White House.
The problem of Bolton and his partners is in the confrontational, marginal and overt personalities that, in any system and even a company in the world, their career cannot be prolonged.
The blessing of the U.S. and the democratic states is that, the exit will be safe for his life, livelihood and his family, contrary to the form of repressive states which are usually terminated by murder, imprisonment or scandal and with jingles as a form of intimidation so that those who come after them won’t dare to say no or even “but”.
In all crises, Trump deliberately loosened the rope to Bolton, leaving him to fall on the Iranian issue, for example, for the purposes of achieving the goal of supporting counter-Iranian states in the Middle East on one hand, and taming Tehran to drag it to the negotiating table secretly or publicly on the other hand.
This was the case with the Venezuelan crisis and the number of Special Forces to be sent to the neighboring or inside Venezuela in support of the “coup”, a number spotted by the press, on papers carried by Bolton after meeting with Trump and senior U.S. military and security officials.
In those days, everyone knew that neither Trump nor his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, would allow things to slip into a war, either directly or by proxies.
In the run-up to the “double rush”, the disastrous fallen out of Bolton’s mouth with his thick mustache, when he compared North Korea’s leader to Gaddafi, the matter led to a setback for him due to what Trump had been preparing for a quiet diplomacy for a deal with Pyongyang to make a success which may lead him to significant deals: Iran and The Deal of the Century.
The “straw that broke the camel’s back” was Trump’s negotiations with the Taliban, aimed at achieving a prominent electoral slogan: withdrawal from Afghanistan, after nearly two decades of a costly, humanly and financially war.
Trump’s discontent with Bolton on his opposition and the leak of what embarrasses the president and put pressure on him to rivals, opposes and the press were obvious.
For Trump, this is an unforgivable sin, and hence the expulsion was loud.
Once again, Trump is trying to turn this expulsion into pressure in more than one file, most notably Iran, where a meeting with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani is almost certain to take place on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Those who bet on Bolton’s “hawkishness” – those who know Trump and the deep state in the U.S. – know that one of the true qualities of a hawk is perspicacity, sharp sight, civility and professionalism, which require the highest degree of secrecy and discipline.
The hawks are still on this description around Trump, such as the two Mikes: Pence and Pompeo (the Vice President and the Secretary of State).
The completion of Trump’s message will be illustrated by his choice of Bolton’s successor. Will it be a general who fought in Afghanistan, an intelligence figure who has dealt with Iran, or will it be an early return for Nikki Haley, who once hinted that her absence won’t last long after leaving the mission of U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.