Dr. Moheeb Salha
The ongoing Turkish invasion in north-eastern Syria, which began on October 9, 2019, preceded by Turkey’s occupation of Syrian lands in the northern countryside of Aleppo (Jarablus – al-Bab – Azaz – Afrin – Marea) is a precedent which hadn't occurred before. Since Turkey's threat to Syria and the mobilization of its army on the borders in October 4 1998, following a severe crisis between the two countries related to the existence of the camps of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its leader "Abdullah Ocalan" on Syrian soil and in Lebanon, which was then under the Syrian commandment, where this crisis ended with the expulsion of the party and its leader from Syria and Lebanon, and the signing of the both governments the Adana Agreement in 1998, brokered by Iran, which has given Turkey the right to move to pursue what it calls "Kurdish terrorists" in a security zone along the Syrian-Turkish borders, and in a depth of 5 km inside the Syrian territories.
This brutal aggression came with Russian-Iranian complicity within the framework of Astana agreements and understandings, and from the United States of America which withdrew its military forces from its positions in the area between Sere-Kaniye (Ras al-Ain) to the east and Tal Abyad (Gre Spi) to the west, in a time that all the understandings of the guarantor countries cover the Astana path. Only the European Union and the Arabic Saudi-Egyptian-Emirati axis objected this aggression, while Qatar doesn't hide its great support for the Turkish aggression, because the "Islamic opposition militias" in which affiliated to Turkey and funded by Qatar are the spearhead of this brutal aggression.
Previously, Turkey didn't hide its ambitions throughout the whole of northern Syria, and it strived to establish a safe zone in it to resettle its Syrian refugees, the majority of whom are Sunni Arabs and Turkmen who left their homes and original areas to escape the ravages of the war and its tragedies.
The policy of Turkish ethnic cleansing and demographic change in north-eastern Syria and the northern countryside of Aleppo comes at the expense of the indigenous people, the Kurds, the Assyrians, and the Syriacs, and to prevent the Kurdish population in the countries of the region from establishing their historical state on their national soil.
Agreements to find a solution
The invading forces occupied an area of 4,220 km² comprising of 68 towns, including Ras al-Ain, Tal Abyad, Suluk, Mabrouka and al-Manajir, and cutting the M4 highway, which is approximately equal to Sanjak of Alexandretta (Liwa' Al-Iskandarūna), and more than twice of the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since 1967.
On October 13, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian government agreed under the Russian auspices, on the entry of the "Syrian Army" to the north and north-eastern areas of: Manbij, Tabqah, Raqqa, Ein Issa, Tal Tamr and Kobani. While the U.S. forces withdraw from their military positions in the governorates of Aleppo and Raqqa, and partly from the governorate of Hasakah.
On October 17, the United States and Turkey agreed to stop the Turkish military invasion for a period of 120 hours in order to allow the SDF to withdraw within 30 km. On October 22, Russia and Turkey agreed to extend the ceasefire for 150 hours, while conducting joint military patrols on the borders, including the Russian military police and the Syrian border guards on one hand, and the Turkish military on the other hand.
But the Turkish forces have never committed to a truce, nor their government’s pledges to the Russian sponsor in Astana, nor to the American guarantor in the Global Coalition against the Islamic State group (ISIS). The game cards were mixed in north-eastern Syria, and all the international, regional and internal players sat at the table without any agreement region the fate of this region.
Russia is pressing for an agreement between the Autonomous Administration of north-eastern Syria and the Syrian government, the U.S. controls the sources of oil and gas under the pretext of preventing them from falling into the hands of ISIS, Turkey and the Islamist opposition groups don't hide their desire to implement the agenda of resettlement and the demographic change along the Syrian-Turkish borders with a depth of up to 35 km.
The Syrian government seems to be betting to put the region in a position that would be in its favor in the future, according to its conception of the form and substance of the political solution, while the Autonomous Administration desires a serious dialogue with the government that leads to a recognition, and on close borders to the region, Iran is awaiting to reap some gains from northern Syrian to barter them in the south.
The SDF remains alone in facing the aggression and resisting its repercussions throughout the eastern Euphrates region, as the People’s Protection Units YPG resists alone the Turkish occupation of Afrin.
The solution in the political dialogue
Within this complexity, the only approach to confronting the aggression and resisting the repercussions of the Turkish occupation on precious parts of the Syrian soil, is confined to a historical political agreement between the Autonomous Administration and the Syrian government, taking into account the political and geopolitical realities on the ground, the type of networking relations among all actors, and the important changes taking place in the region of the Autonomous Administration as an important model of the administrative decentralization explicitly, which stipulated in Law 107/2011, which can be depended on and relied upon to develop it and to develop the concept of the democratic decentralization in a way that embodies the unity of the Syrian state in land and people.
On the national side, the agreement to resist the Turkish occupation in all political, legal, economic and military forms, and to provide all the requirements for resistance, and the work with the allies of both the international parties, Russia and the US, the regional parties, Iran and the Saudi axis, to pressure Turkey to withdraw its forces to its international borders, and to prevent it from implementing its occupying political, economic, military and demographic agendas.
At the same time, the Syrian-Syrian dialogue, which excludes no one in the framework of an integrated political process to solve the Syrian issue under an international sponsorship and in accordance with the relevant Security Council resolutions, will ensure adequate ground and objective capabilities to remove all foreign forces from Syria by legal and legitimate means and prevent any attempts to divide it.