North-Press Agency
Hussein Zedo
Both Russia and the United States have interfered in the Syrian crisis from two different sides, as they have shown that their goal is to fight terrorism and prevent its expansion, but their actions on the ground have proven that they are sharing Syria by force to areas of influence for them and their allies and proxies. Russia has focused its influence on (western Syria), while the U.S. focused its influence on (eastern Syria). Then, what are the reasons for dividing on such basis? How does it reflect on the future of Syria and its neighboring countries?
Reasons for choosing Russia and the U.S. their areas of influence
Russia has chosen to stand by the government in Syria since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, an extension of an old partnership dating back to decades. As Russia focused its compass on western Syria for two main reasons: The presence of the popular incubator of Syrian rule in the west (the coastal area), and second: the western region of Syria overlooking the Mediterranean coast. Hence, the Russian forces, alongside the Syrian government forces, participated in the fight against the Islamist Syrian armed opposition groups, and used advanced types of weaponry therefore.
Also, Russia's alliance with Damascus government was not limited only to the military side, but also included the diplomatic side abroad and inside the country. Abroad, Russia prevented any U.N. Security Council resolution against the rule of Damascus, using the Russian veto permanently and with the support of its global allies such as China. And inside the country, the Russian diplomacy participated in the progress of the reconciliation project between the Syrian government and the armed opposition groups, and contributed to the project of trade-offs with Turkey over some Syrian regions, and an attempt of rapprochement between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Russia has entered into agreements with the Syrian government to invest the port of Tartous for decades, as the Russian forces aim at tightening their control over all Syrian territories in the west.
Russia also took advantage of the withdrawal of the U.S. troops from the north, so it interfered in some areas, and recently tightened its grip over a part of northern Syria as well, but the majority of eastern Syria remained under the influence of the U.S. forces, as the U.S. interests required keeping some of its troops in the east, and continue to protect its benefits there.
The United States intervened militarily under the cover of fighting the “Islamic State” terrorist group (ISIS) in north and eastern Syria, and chose the Syrian Democratic Forces SDF and its backbone the People’s Protection Units YPG as an ally, so it finally chose to be present and stay in eastern Syria for two reasons, of which the first is, the eastern region is rich in energy, and this is to secure the military expenses of its local partners (the Syrian Democratic Forces), through their investment of energy, and preventing it from falling into the hands of the Islamic State, as stated by the U.S. Administration.
While the second reason was clear that the region is the dividing line between the two projects of Iran and Russia which aspire to control Iraq and Syria, in addition to Lebanon, and to prevent the completion of the influence of the two countries over these three countries, and repelling the threat against the U.S. interests in the Middle East, as the United States focused on the presence of its military bases in eastern Syria, even has willingly withdrawn from large areas in northern Syria, to be replaced by Turkey and Russia, because northern Syria does not fall within its geopolitical objectives.
The United States also strengthened its presence in the area of al-Tanaf, on the borders with Iraq, and has recently decided to keep some of its troops in all the oil and gas regions, located in north-eastern Syria; which are Remailan in the far northeast of Syria, al-Shaddadi in southern Hasakah, and areas belonging to the governorate of Deir ez-Zor, areas with heavy oil fields, where international statistics indicate that Syria has approximately 2,5 billion barrels of oil reserves.
The geopolitical goal of the United States is more important than the seizure of the Syrian oil, in order to ward off the dangers of completing the Iranian Shiite Crescent project, preventing the Middle East from falling under the Russian influence, and protecting the interests of the United States in the Arab Gulf.
The consequences of dividing Syria into areas of influence
The division of the Syrian state into areas of influence controlled by different military forces is considered as a deep rift in the entity of the Syrian society, and a great harm in the social, cultural and economic aspects of the Syrian society, as this will affect the neighboring countries as well. The bonds of Syrian society have been severed, even the ties of each Syrian family have been severed due to the multiplicity of spheres of influence. There are half of an Arab family from Deir ez-Zor that lives under the Russian influence, and the other half lives under the U.S. influence, and there is a half of a Kurdish family that live under the Turkish influence, and the other half lives under the American influence. which means that the Syrian cultural entities (the Kurds, the Arabs, the Syriacs, etc) were divided between the areas of influence, as those ancient cultures will be affected by it, where Turkey tries to obliterate the culture of the indigenous societies, and force its culture through the policy of Turks, by opening schools and imposing the Turkish language on the locals of the Turkish-occupied areas in northern Syria.
On the other hand, the areas under the Russian influence, the Syrian government follows the policy of spreading the Arab culture and marginalizes the rest of the Syrian cultures, while the economic situation will be further affected because it is already damaged as a result of the war which set the links of the Syrian geography apart.
In fact, if Syria remains fragmented between different areas of influence, a negative impact on the Syrian society as a whole will be created, and a state of unrest within the neighboring countries will be caused as well. Therefore, the major powers (the U.S. and Russia) should take the matter into consideration, and not only count their benefits by dividing Syria, rather, they should look where this is going. Sharing influence in Syria would cast a shadow over the neighboring countries, pushing societies there towards collision, and creating an environment conducive to internal wars, same to what’s happening in Syria.