Beirut – North-Press agency
Khurshid Delli
The memorandums of understanding between the Turkish regime of Erdogan and al-Sarraj has led to an unprecedented tension in the Mediterranean, and at the same time the launch of the Libyan National Army led by Major-General Khalifa Haftar, a military campaign that is the largest to control the Libyan capital Tripoli, and this is what I expected in my previous article when I said the Erdogan – al-Sarraj understanding would push Haftar to carry out such a campaign to block the Turkish project in Libya.
Global front moving
Erdogan-Sarraj understanding led to a new scene in the Mediterranean, Egypt was affected by this understanding so it rushed to organize military exercises across the Mediterranean Sea, during which missiles were fired at ships, as these exercises were a clear message that Egypt will not allow Turkey to harm its interests and threaten its security via the gate of Libya..In turn, Greece which is in a historic conflict with Turkey in the Aegean and Mediterranean seas expelled the Libyan ambassador of the Government of National Accord, filed a complaint to the United Nations, and at sea it mobilized militarily and took security measures to prevent the implementation of any practical steps in the terms of Erdogan-Sarraj Understandings.
While In support of Greece, Europe moved and held a historic summit in Brussels, during which it declared its rejection of this understanding and its full support for Greece. Perhaps the most important thing here was the Italian stance, which announced its rejection of the understanding, criticizing the stance of al-Sarraj after Italy was the largest country supporting his government.
Russia, despite its silence, also moved on the ground in eastern Libya, sending military reinforcements amid reports of its intention to establish a military base there in direct support for General Haftar, which constitutes a Turkish-Russian clash point after Turkey threw its military weight in Libya, providing various forms of military support to the armed groups controlling Tripoli, and believed that the understanding of al-Sarraj-Erdogan would give Turkey free military movements by land, sea and air in Libya.
These regional and international positions constituted a global front in the face of Erdogan's offensive policy, a policy that aims at imposing new maps on the Mediterranean, not only in search for energy but also about a defunct empire that Erdogan wants to breathe life into.
Egypt is the target
Since President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s arrival in power in Egypt, and his end of the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood there, the Egyptian-Turkish relations have been going in one of their worst stages. Erdogan, who saw Sisi’s arrival in power as a devastating blow to his regional project towards the Arab world, therefore, he does not hesitate to attack al-Sisi on and without an occasion and to interfere in the internal affairs of Egypt, as he greatly supported the Muslim Brotherhood, especially after Turkey had turned into a center for the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Egypt was the first to announce its rejection of al-Sarraj-Erdogan understanding, moving in coordination with Greece and Cyprus to thwart it, and to conduct massive maritime exercises that included firing missiles on ships in simulation of a possible virtual war with Turkey, especially since Erdogan stepping up his tone and declaring that Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and Israel could not excavate for energy without his country's approval. But what scares Egypt more is the aspects that target Egypt's security. Libya is not only a neighbor to Egypt, but it constitutes the depth of its national security, especially since eastern Libya constitutes a historical, social, security and economic extension of Egypt, and therefore the Turkish military support for the Libyan armed groups constitute a direct threat to the security of Egypt and its allies in Libya, especially since the Turkish role in circumventing Egypt has become clear, sometimes from Somalia and another from Sudan during the time of al-Bashir, while today in Libya, and even from the Egyptian Sinai.
There have been numerous reports of Turkish intelligence and military support for groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS) in Egyptian Sinai, as these groups have carried out several terrorist attacks during the past years, which necessitated the Egyptian army to conduct large-scale security operations against these groups, in addition to affirming that Egypt is the core goal of the Turkish move in Libya, Egypt seemed ready to respond, confront and act, especially since President al-Sisi called for deterrent measures against the regional states that support terrorism, in reference to Turkey.
Europe waking up memory and history
Erdogan, with his provocative Ottoman policy on the Mediterranean, returned to the memory of the Europeans, the bloody history of the Ottomans towards Europe, a history that stands on a bloody legacy when the Ottomans taking control of Constantinople – Istanbul in 1453 and the attempt of Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent to invade Vienna, this bloody legacy can only jump into the memory of the Europeans when Erdogan speaks in the dialect of orders and high commands in the Mediterranean, where Greece is the gateway to Europe, the irony here is that Turkey’s Erdogan, who speaks out by this language with Europe, is the same one who has been standing at its door for nearly three decades in search of its membership.
Certainly, Europe has long been silent on Erdogan, as he sometimes threatens its countries to send millions of refugees and sometimes threatens by the detainees it has arrested, and thirdly, by accusing the European leaders of being Nazis and fascists, as happened with the French President Macron some time ago. Maybe Europe has endured all of this for opportunistic and interest reasons, but when it comes to the security of the Mediterranean, Europe in general, and the future of energy and the threat on Greece, which is the gateway to Europe, the European countries did not stand idly in the face of this offensive Turkish behavior, and perhaps the understanding of al-Sarraj-Erdogan marked the beginning of a different policy of Europe against Erdogan after it had been compromised with for a long time; however, its general position was opportunistic against the Turkish aggression on north-eastern Syria, where the trusted ally the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), that was able to inflict the greatest defeat on ISIS, which means that these countries must correct their stances in order to provide more support for the SDF in the face of Turkey's aggressive policy.
Erdogan is in the difficult test
Without a doubt, Erdogan has provoked the world against his offensive policy in the Mediterranean, which reports indicate that Turkey will be the global energy artery in the future, and with this understanding he has put himself in a difficult test, especially as General Haftar is continuing his attack on Tripoli, and announcing that he would proceed to control it and expel the Turkish affiliated armed groups, which means the end of the Turkish project in Libya, and if that happens, the repercussions on Turkey would be greater than the repercussions of the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood’s rule in Egypt, and the question here is: What would Erdogan really do if it was confirmed that Haftar would control Tripoli?
Will he initiate more military assistance to the armed groups, despite an international decision banning the supply of arms to Libya? Will he send the Turkish army to Libya to fight against Haftar's forces to prevent the fall of Tripoli?
Undoubtedly, Erdogan's options are very difficult. On one hand, he does not bear the repercussions of the fall of Tripoli in the hands of Haftar. On the other hand, he realizes that sending Turkish forces to Libya may lead to the outbreak of a major regional war, as the Arab countries, especially Egypt and the Arab Gulf, will not be silent on such aggression, no matter how much Erdogan encapsulates it with arguments and justifications.
In this context, the meeting that the Turkish Foreign and Defense Ministers held with al-Sarraj in Qatar, carried great meanings in terms of coordination between the Turkish-Libyan-Qatari trios on how to act in the next stage regarding this entitlement. Although Erdogan has brought matters to a great point of tension and escalation, he may find in front of these facts only a call for dialogue and perhaps refer the whole matter to the United Nations in search for a way out of his trouble, otherwise, the war in the Mediterranean may emanate from the craters of cannons, missiles and aircraft in all directions.
* Mr. Khurshid Delli, is an expert in the Turkish and Middle East affairs.