Qamishli – North-Press Agency
Alan Hassan
The scene in Syria is developing faster than expected due to the changes on the ground, which was the result of the recent military developments. After the recent Turkish military and in northeastern Syria in last October with the support of Turkish-backed Syrian armed groups and the Russian silence, it seems that the understandings between the two sides required an implicit consent from Moscow to the operation in exchange for the Syrian governmental army to regain control over strategic parts of the main opposition’s stronghold in Idlib, after four years of its control of the bordering region with Turkey, and which has been a symbol for the Syrian armed opposition against the Syrian government for many years, as it became a shelter for the hardliners such as "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" (previously al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria al-Nusra Front), in addition to the leaders of the Islamic State group (ISIS), and the latest U.S. operation in the bordering village of Barisha with Turkey is only part of a series of assertions that Idlib has turned into a destination for these radical organizations, which keep boasting of their love for death, and deny others their love for life, in addition to being the first refuge for the Syria’s most opposed population for the rule of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Intensive airstrikes by the Russian and Syrian warplanes on the eastern side of the strategic city of Maarat al-Numan are sounding as alarm bells for the groups controlling that area on the M5 highway (Aleppo-Damascus Highway), thus the Syrian government will extend its control over five major cities: Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Damascus and Daraa, so that it can control the longest highway in Syria, which has a length of 450 km, and this is an essential part of a Russian plan to make the Syrian economy to restore a part of its health. This requires the opening of this strategic road, in addition to removing the Turkish-backed armed groups from areas of their control on the M4 highway, which links Aleppo to Latakia, adjacent to the town of Tal Tamr in the governorate of Hasakah, northeastern Syria, according to the agreement by the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Turkish one Erdogan in the middle of 2018, which requires the restoration of transit traffic via both M4 and M5 highways.
It is clear that this Russian plan aims at finding alternatives for the Syrian government from the U.S. blackmail by controlling the main oil and gas fields in northeastern Syria, as well as for the approval of Caesar’s Law by the U.S. Congress, which punishes the countries and entities that deal with the Syrian government, and thus it will place the Syrian government in a stronger position when negotiating in the East of the Euphrates file, as the western part of it has become more accessible in the negotiation game due to the presence of the Russian forces, and the Russian announcements regarding its readiness to play the role of the mediator in any negotiation process, and later a settlement between the Autonomous Administration of northeastern Syria and the Syrian government.
The Russian role has become more trusted by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which has come to understand the Russian endeavor in Syria. Likewise, Moscow has become more realistic in its approach to accept the concerns of the components of the Autonomous Administration’s regions from any tendency that the Syrian government wants in order to solve this complex issue ethnically and sectarianly.
With regaining control over the region of Idlib by the Syrian government forces, or at least the most important parts of it, the Turkish role in Syria would have been carried out according to Russia, and therefore Moscow wouldn't have to make any further concessions in the upcoming days. The settlement of the conditions in the Autonomous Administration regions would become a purely U.S.-Russian affair. It seems that the temporary military understandings have already been accomplished after the two chiefs of staff agreed to prevent the military collision, as well as within the framework of the armies' operations of the two countries in those areas.
Accordingly, the areas loyal to Ankara (such as al-Bab, Azaz, Jarablus, and Afrin) will be the next target for Damascus and Moscow shortly after completion, the settlement of the file of the Autonomous Administration in addition to the conditional U.S. exit arrangements from Syria, which may relate to seizing the Iranian role in Syria by removing the affiliated armed groups inside the Syrian territories, which their services can be dispensed with if it is agreed with the SDF to participate in the battles of control over the areas controlled by the Turkish affiliated armed groups, which were mostly an integral part of the declared Autonomous Administration in 2014. The Turkish military with its affiliated groups’ invasion in Afrin in the beginning of 2018 and the problem of returning Afrin's IDPs into their homes have become a prerequisite for the Autonomous Administration, and this may constitute an essential ground for the SDF agreement with Moscow and Damascus.
The job role of Ankara in the Syrian war was important for the Astana Troika, which began in 2017 and brought it together with Moscow and Tehran, because Ankara has a geopolitical importance, in addition to its impact on the most strict groups in Syria, and these groups weren't a part of Moscow and Ankara's plans to involve in the future Syria, which has never believed in the rules of the political game in the future of Syria, and therefore the Turkish role was that using these powers to strike the project of the Autonomous Administration on the southern borders of Turkey. By settling the administration's file, the role of the groups ends in Turkey, and the way for a political process becomes paved, where the forces which believe in the transfer of the military conflict to the corridors of politics and resorting to participate in the democratic rules of the game.