Dr. Ahmed Yousef
Since the Islamists' coup against the Shah’s government in 1979, the U.S.-Iranian relations on their face weren't based on the harmonization between the two countries, but they kept subject to continuous and escalating tensions from time to time for four decades, which have been sufficient for the fall of one of them if they had the character of seriousness in their nature. Undoubtedly, the Iranian side is the one which has the capabilities to fall in front of the might of the mightiest world powers, and it is the weakest in the unbalanced equation between them. Contrary to what was expected, the Iranian hegemony expanded in all of its surroundings stretching from the Caucasus to the Red Sea at the sight of the Americans.
If that Iranian expansion is a normal thing in all its surroundings, then it isn't so in the post-Saddam Iraq with the rule of al-Baath, nor in the northern borders of Palestine, due to the fact that the first is the outcome of the U.S. leadership of a Global Coalition to end the former Iraqi regime, and through which the coup de grace was shot against the system of the national state, including Iran which has worn its national the suit of religion from the radical sectarian gate in order to provide the human stock in its various projects. Therefore, the Iraqi geography, Americanly, has a strategic importance launching the establishment of the new Middle East, and it has left nothing for Iran except many questions which are hard to answer for the time being. The second is on the borders of a country enjoying all the preferential advantages of the Western countries, the USA is in the forefront.
Surrounding Israel with two terrorist Islamic organizations on the lists of the superpowers, and enjoying distinguished relations with their one source of funding perhaps, despite the dispute and the sectarian differences which dive into the depths of history between them, is also an important source of a set of questions which may direct us towards the unique ability of the international system based on the control of the contradictions in their various forms through tools where their behaviors suggest the opposite. Here, we believe in Iran's deserve of garters at the top of its authorities as a result of its success in domesticating the Islamic part of the Palestinian movement in channels that it draws them and defines its features in a way that earns the satisfaction of the first ranks of the international powers.
The apparent complexities of the nature of the U.S.-Iranian relations must be reflected on the scenes raised between them after the third uprising in the last two decades, which are failed under the silence of the international powers, and silent in the face of violations by the repressive authorities during less than ten years, and the prominent contradictions between them in the Syrian event through acts which may be unusual and costly for one side. It seems that the end of the role of Iran's first man and the engineer of its foreign policies came without ending the job entrusted to him within the framework of these complexities.
Followers of the consequences of Soleimani’s killing will only see the establishment of new rules in the foreign policy by the Iranian authorities, which is called partial retraction and self-rolling in proportion to the interests of the international powers in their surroundings, while the Iranian diplomacy proves its ability in overcoming the difficulties it faces in its regional and international relationships, and it doesn’t hesitate in removing the internal hinders in order to ensure the proper performance of its missions. So, it isn't excluded that, the Iranian political administration sees the end of Qasem Soleimani's role-the person-as a protection of the Iranian role in its surroundings and indefinitely excluding the ghost of the international isolation.
The phantom clashes which exceeded the rules of military engagement in a geography that isn't theirs, but it is of a strategic importance for both is likely to change the rules of dealing and their features in the post-Soleimani era, and to proceed in a way which makes Iran framed by templates imposed by the harsh nature of the international relations in conditions of the fundamental changes. This is aided by the great strength of parallel internal forces which form an economic octopus and adhere to the joints of the Iranian life, both internally and externally.
The Iranian regime has made great efforts in building an economic, military and security regime parallel to its administrative one, in the context of its attempt to mitigate the effects of the international sanctions on the one hand, and to strengthen centers of the security grip against the internal threats on the other hand, by establishing an octopus network among the Supreme Leader, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and huge economic entities which follow them through channels outside the control of the official institutions of the Iranian state.
The Bonyad Foundation (charitable trusts in Iran that play a major role in Iran's non-petroleum economy, controlling an estimated 20% of Iran's GDP and channeling revenues to groups supporting the Islamic Republic), which is directly affiliated to the Supreme Leader is a parallel situation in the Iranian economy, whose assets exceed 10 billion dollars, and more than 250,000 people work in. It started its charitable activities providing services to the poor of Iran and the families of the martyrs, its activities expanded to include all the economic sector, as it also expanded abroad through the spread of its investment activities in Asia, Africa and countries of the Middle East to form a cover for the Iranian intelligence in exercising its external activities, especially supporting the uranium enrichment process in the Iranian nuclear reactor. This institution isn't subject to governmental supervision or accountability, and it isn't obliged to disclose its assets or activities. It plays a big role in spreading the phenomenon of Shiism in its surroundings.
While the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has indulged in the economic activities after the Iraqi-Iranian war in 1988. It practices its economic activities in the various economic sectors, where it owns 51% of one of the biggest communication operators in Iran, TCA, of $8 billion. By this way, it ensures controlling communication operations, supervising and checking it. Also, it is in charge of the black economy in Iran through trading in contraband and smuggling subsidized oil out of Iran, as the achievement of this black trade is equivalent to $12 billion annually.
Despite being targeted by the Western sanctions, the Revolutionary Guard Corps plays a significant role in breaking the rules of those sanctions through building suspicious relationships with the foreign companies that want to deal with Iran via methods of circumventing sanctions.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps possesses more than 100 giant companies in all fields, the important of which are "Khatem al-Anbiya'", "Cooperation" Institution of the Revolutionary Guard Corps and "Kotheran" Foundation. All of these companies get a big support from the Supreme Leader to enhance their role in the parallel economy in order to ensure the loyalty of the senior officers.
Iran has developed its alliances with China, Russia, India and Latin America countries, complementing its project in curbing the effects of the economic sanctions, and it has achieved limited successes in the track of its economic policies through those alliances in light of the international sanctions which have headed towards strictness by preventing it from dealing with the global financial system since 2011.
The recognition of the institution of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard Corps of the octopus structures and its parallel economic foundations about the fact of the mechanism which they use in managing Iran in light of the external sanctions and the internal pressures, which are heading to the acceleration and reducing the time periods among the societal savings, impose on it to curb the escalatory methodology in its external crises, not as a desire for that, but it is compelled to do so in order to manage the contradictions in which it has been affected by the fiery speech and the opposite act of it, in order to keep the difficult methodology in managing a society based on variety, but was forced to adopt one color imposed on it by the institutions of the parallel formal authorities and the management of its external missions according to the balances, which are put by the international powers to exclude the phantom of the inevitable end.