Marah al-Bukai
Will Moscow really abandon Bashar al-Assad in exchange for keeping its spoils in Syria with U.S. consent and blessing? Will they meet the other condition set by Washington – that Russia helps break the link between the Syrian regime and Iranian sectarian militias stationed there, thus making it easier for the U.S. to cut the strategic supply route to Iran that begins from Tehran and ends in Beirut's ports through Baghdad and Damascus?
May the Russian-Turkish military understandings in Idlib, and the steadfastness of the ceasefire agreed upon between the two parties, lead to the disintegration of the parties of the Astana triangle? This would mean that Tehran is completely excluded from any future deliberations to establish a comprehensive ceasefire in all parts of the country after the ceasefire both parties achieved in the last spot of the fighting in northwestern Syria without Iran's presence, forcing it to withdraw some of its militias in Idlib and its countryside as a result of the bilateral consensus between Moscow and Ankara.
There is no doubt that the growing pressure exerted by Washington on the sectarian regime in Tehran through economic and political sanctions on its pillars of rule has contributed greatly to frustrating the operations of Iranian cross-border militias in Syrian territory and reducing its resources. This forces it to make a series of withdrawals from many combat sites where it has been present for years on the ground, and this has been reflected in the decline in military actions with the approaching Syrian political entitlements, whether parliamentary or presidential.
It will not be forgotten that the military sites of Iranian militias and the heavy weapons depots in Syria are routinely subjected to precision strikes launched by Israeli fighter jets. These strikes are not intercepted by the Russian S-300 missile defense systems, which Moscow brought to Syria under the pretext of strengthening the defensive force of the Syrian army fighting under al-Assad’s command.
With the approaching implementation of the US Caesar Act sanctions that come into effect in June, we find that Russia is gradually withdrawing to disengage from sanctions-targeted Iran, leaving the arena for Washington to apply its sanctions on the regime, and on one ally left of its sectarian counterparts from the rulers of Tehran.
As for the almost-daily Russian media leaks quoting Russian and international media talking about the Russian stance, that has become unhappy with Assad’s intransigence and refusal of a political transition which Putin constantly advises him to accept, they are no coincidence.
Most observers of the Syrian issue believe that these media messages target two opposing sides: the first is the Assad regime, pressuring it to make concessions and embark on the political transition process within UN Resolution No. 2254 as soon as possible. The other target is U.S. decision-makers, to highlight the new Russian stance in its intention to stop protecting al-Assad if he continues to hide behind his Iranian ally.
The U.S. response to Russian media messages that conceals a new political stance for Russia was not delayed. U.S. Special Envoy for Syria James Jeffrey said at a symposium held in Washington recently that "Washington is fully aware that the Russian-Syrian relationship is not at its best because of President Bashar al-Assad," noting that "the current U.S. administration is taking this matter in consideration, and Moscow is helping in partnership with the international community to prepare for the political transition in Syria."
It is worth noting that the Syrian Desert is witnessing a wide intelligence movement led by the Global Coalition along with Kurdish and Arab forces there in order to accurately determine the locations of Iranian militias in the region.
Washington is counting on a recent attempt promised by Moscow aimed at persuading Tehran to withdraw from the Syrian Desert.
However, if Tehran rejects a voluntary withdrawal and the Russian attempt fails, Washington is preparing for a massive military campaign in which the Coalition along with Syrian fighters will participate on the ground, which will end the Iranian dream of opening the supply route between Tehran and Beirut and announce the demise of the obsession with the "Shiite Crescent" that Iran tried to draw in the blood of the people of the Levant for decades by exporting cross-border sectarian violence.