Cairo – North-Press Agency
Muhammad Abu Zaid
Armed groups continue to operate in many countries in the Middle East despite the coronavirus pandemic, which imposes itself on the global scene in a big way. Experts and research centers believe that these terrorist organizations sought to take advantage of the pandemic to develop their arsenals in light of the world's preoccupation, and the number of terrorist operations has increased compared to before the pandemic.
During April, ISIS carried out 151 operations in the region, which is nearly double the number of attacks carried out in January this year, which was 88.
The numbers revealed by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy highlight the extraordinary activity of the armed groups during the coronavirus crisis, through which they seek to return to the scene and re-establish themselves after their losses during the last two years in Syria and Iraq.
April
The series of operations last April included a number of operations in many countries in the region and African countries as well, including a suicide bombing that took place in front of the intelligence headquarters in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk, as well as the operation in Salah al-Din which killed 10 members of the Popular Mobilization Units and other operations that carried out by ISIS. The most recent of these was the targeting of Egyptian armed forces in the Bir al-Abed area in northern Sinai province, killing 10 soldiers, including an officer and a non-commissioned officer.
Khaled al-Zaafrani, an expert on political Islamic organizations and director of the Center for Political Islam Reviews in Cairo, told North-Press about the strategy of armed organizations to exploit the world's preoccupation with the coronavirus.
Zaafrani explains that operations reveal an intensification by these groups in terms of limited solo operations, through which they seek to inflict the greatest amount of damage to countries, whether through suicide operations such as the suicide bombing in Kirkuk last week or by other individual and limited operations carried out with a limited number of perpetrators. Through these, these organizations seek to establish their presence and take advantage of the current situation to reinvigorate themselves on the world stage after a number of losses.
Losses
However, al-Zaafrani doubted the ability of these terrorist groups to reoccupy the same space that they occupied in 2014 and 2015, due to continuous national and international efforts to eliminate those organizations. Their dependence on solo operations is a confirmation of the extent of their vulnerability.
He said: "These groups are now unable to resist, carry out larger operations, or control vast geographical areas as they did before; at the same time they are seeking alternative habitats to rebuild themselves in the region by investing in sleeper cells."
In a research paper, the International Crisis Group highlighted the Islamic State’s attempts to redeploy by exploiting the coronavirus crisis, warning of a resurgence of the group’s activity in light of countries’ preoccupations with countering the virus, which can be seen by monitoring the recent increase in the number of ISIS operations.
The research paper entitled "Contending with ISIS in the Time of Coronavirus" called for the need to pay attention to the terrorist organization's attempts to take advantage of the regional and international state of chaos.
On the contrary, other analyses reduce the possibility of the Islamic State’s success in exploiting the coronavirus epidemic, holding the opinion that coronavirus may be an opportunity to eliminate these terrorist organizations.
Mustafa Kemal, a researcher on Islamic armed movements, believes that cutting off funding and direct contacts between the members of ISIS in light of the measures taken to prevent coronavirus contributes to weakening the organization, and may help control and eliminate it.
Kemal does not put much emphasize on the operations carried out by ISIS, since they are individual operations only used to reassert their presence. However, ISIS does not have the ability to carry out larger operations.