Irans expected response to Soleimani s assassination could lead to a major war – Analysts

North-Press Agency

Political analysts and diplomats told North-Press about the seriousness of the action taken by the United States by targeting the commander of the Iranian Quds Force Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces PMF in Iraq, in addition to the expected Iranian response that might lead to a major war in the region that could have serious repercussions.   

The seriousness of the American act

In this regard, Iraqi political analyst Nizar Haider said in an interview with North-Press that there are no disagreement about the gravity of the act committed by the United States. “General Soleimani is a very important leader for Tehran and he is directly linked to the Supreme Leader, and he is primarily responsible for the implementation of Iran's policies in the region, specifically in hot spots such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Palestine, and others.” Haider considered that Washington would be stupid if it does not care about the Iranian threats, and does not take them seriously.
He pointed out that Tehran would not respond immediately, it might take time for its plans, due to its precise planning before taking any action, especially regarding its direct national security. He also expressed his regret that Iraq has been an open arena for settling the accounts of a number of international and regional parties for a long time, noting that this matter is due to the importance of Iraq, where every regional or international party seeks to employ this importance and at various levels to protect itself from the complex and interlocking conflicts that the region has been witnessing for decades, in addition to another reason, which is the type of the political system that based on components, whose loyalties are multiplied to abroad, each according to its religious, sectarian and ethnic backgrounds.
The recent U.S. act in Baghdad which flagrantly violated the sovereignty and international laws is the most important reason that will perpetuate the policies of settling accounts between the litigants in Iraq, and complicate the scene more and more and increase the possibility of danger from the point of view of the Iraqi political analyst, who indicated that the supreme authority in Iraq has called more than once to keep the country away from being an area to settle the accounts of the others.
Regarding whether the Congress will intervene to reduce tensions between Washington and Tehran, Haider said, "I think that it will not affect much because the tension comes back between the two sides, and if they don't decide to ease the tensions, the laws of one of them do not apply to the other.”
“In addition to the fact that the current tension will not be dragged into an all-out war in the conventional sense, but will remain in the context of proxy wars, and that type of war does not require laws and legislations," he said.
“The latest American act also revealed profound differences between the international countries, and even between America's closest allies, such as Britain, which Secretary of State Mike Pompeo revealed when he expressed his displeasure with the European stance in general,” Haider said.
He considered that the reason for this is that every country in this world has a different vision from the other in terms of ways and methods of protecting international interests in the region, in addition to the way of dealing with Tehran, noting that whatever reasons were presented by Washington to justify this act; however, it failed to convince its allies that it was necessary to do so.

Why was he killed?

Among the questions raised by the U.S. diplomat, Dr. Nabil al-Khoury in his interview with North-Press about the assassination of Qasem Soleimani is that: "Why was he killed, and why now, and does that solve the problem with Iran regardless of what he was agreeing with and what against, in the end, Soleimani was considered an enemy of the United States.”
Al-Khoury indicated that the killing of one person regardless of his status would not change anything in the deep differences between the United States and Iran on the one hand, and between the Gulf states and Iran on the other.
"The strategy that follows the killing of someone of this position is important and for the President of the United States is not clear, although he has stated that he does not want war, but such an operation could lead to war, and based on the Iranian response, there will be an American response and the responses will continue until the region is dragged into another war," he said. The issue of the responses would not be confined to Iraq alone, the arena may expand, but it will remain between the USA and Iran, without the intervention of other countries, according to what Dr. Nabil Khoury expected. He stressed that the most important result of the assassination of Gen. Qasem Soleimani is represented by the first victim, which is diplomacy, while the diplomatic solution is now missing.

A void in the U.S. strategy

Imad al-Din Hamrouni, a professor of international relations and expert on the European affairs explained that what the United States has done to assassinate Gen. Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces is an act out of emptiness in the U.S. political-strategic project, considering that this assassination does not serve the U.S. interests, rather it may serve Israel's interests in the first place. He told North-Press that this matter is an attack on Iraqi sovereignty as it occurred on its territories; in addition, it is an attack on Iran as what happened is seen as a declaration of war by the United States on what Soleimani represents inside and outside Iran. He also pointed out that this attack will have its strategic repercussions on the Iranian response, which will change the equations in western Asia, explaining that Iranian people and the Axis of Resistance are demanding Iran to respond despite the Arab, European and Russian mediation to mitigate the response. “However, Iran would not accept to share influence in the Middle East with the United States; at a minimum level, we would almost witness a U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq without negotiations with any party involved in the matter," he said.
Regarding the European Union, France has expressed great concern and has tried many times in the recent hours to consult with the Russian, Chinese, American and Iranian sides to ease the response, calling for a return to negotiations, but the Iranian side is demanded to respond, according the expert on the European affairs. He concluded by saying: "Based on the foregoing, the equations will change, and the confrontations will be more violent and perhaps the response would be to some American presence centers in Iraq and the region, but the important response will be a strategic response by changing the game, indicating that we entered into a puzzle-game between the United States and its allies, especially Israel, and some Arab countries, where Iran and its allies, in addition to Russia and China.

Repercussions in Western Asia

The Lebanese political analyst Faisal Abdul Sater believes that the great impact and serious repercussions of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani would be on a very large scale, as Iranian statements talk about repercussions in western Asia, not in a specific country or destination. According to Abdul Sater, this extension sheds the light on the U.S. interests and the military presence in the region. He pointed out that Iran is very keen on coordination, its presence and work in Syria in coordination with the Syrian government, and so is the matter in Iraq, explaining that the issue of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces were established by an advisory consultation from the supreme authority, where the Irane support was according to the fatwa that called for this matter. He pointed out that Iran has the right to choose any target it wants to respond to the assassination of Soleimani, considering that the United States assassinated him at Baghdad airport and was almost on a semi-public visit, which means that Washington has exceeded all the considerations by this act, and violated all laws and sovereignty.
Regarding the killing of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and the Iraqi popular situation affected by his assassination, Abdul Sater thinks that the Iraqi government and parliament can only be at the people's good expectation to take clear stances on the American presence in Iraq and the aggression against Iraqi sovereignty. “It is most likely that things are heading towards escalating directions and the Iranian response is coming," he said. As for how things will be or when the response will be, Abdul Sater explained that this depends on the coordination that Iran will work on, and it depends on the appropriate moment.
He noted that the diplomatic movement at the international level is at its highest level and has reached its peak, where more than 16 countries offered their mediations, so that there would be no violent Iranian response to the U.S. strike and the assassination of Soleimani and al-Muhandis.