Israeli Institute of Studies: Changes in Syrian government indicate threat to Assad

RAMALLAH, Palestine (North Press) – The Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) said on Monday that “Syrian President Bashar Assad is trying to confront the economic crisis resulting from the US Caesar Act and the repercussions of coronavirus through the dismissal of the Syrian Prime Minister on June 11, and the appointment of Minister of Water Affairs Hussein Arnous in his place."

The Tel Aviv based INSS believes that this step indicates a sense of the threat that is hovering over Assad as a result of the popular protests and the economic crisis, and its aim is to pass a message that Arnous is responsible for the situation more so than the President.

Assad's main fear is cracks among his loyalists, who have endured the hardships of war but are now affected by the economic crisis, according to the INSS.

The security apparatus in Israel talked about instability between those close to Assad, as they pointed to a media-covered conflict between President Assad and his cousin Rami Makhlouf, who is considered one of the richest personalities in Syria, the owner of the largest telecommunications company in the country Syriatel, and one of the major importers of oil and consumer goods.

The conflict reveals tensions between Assad and his associates, who are considered the economic elite in Syria, and it mainly expresses the economic pressure from which the Syrian president suffers, according to the Israeli group.

The INSS believes that the slogans of the protestors express resentment and disgust at foreign presence in Syria.

Reports in recent months indicate that Russia is tightening its control over the country by setting up new military bases, controlling more Syrian territory, expanding its path to the Mediterranean, and recruiting Syrian fighters to fight in Libya alongside Russian-backed Khalifa Haftar. This indicates Russia's aspiration to turn Syria into a center of its activity, and into a field of mobilization for Russia's regional conflicts – according to an article written by a researcher at the INSS.

Criticism for Assad’s performance is often heard in official Russian outlets, where he is portrayed as a weak, corrupt, and unpopular man. “Russia's motives in this regard are unclear, the hypotheses vacillate between the boredom of the Assad regime and preparing the ground for his removal, to the use of pressure on him to allow Russia to obtain additional economic shares from Syria's resources," according to observers.

Israeli strategic institutes have wondered if it is time for Syria without Assad. The answer to this dilemma, for them, is that Assad's weakness and vulnerability are an opportunity that should be seized by the international community, with the U.S in the forefront. So far, the international community has accepted the continuation of Assad's control, but in light of recent events, the international community should make a reassessment on the current policy.