A strategic analyst: Missile that hit SU-22 likely launched from Turkey
Istanbul – North-Press Agency
Samer Taha
The former Syrian Army Brigadier General Ahmad Rahal said that the Syrian situation nowadays is facing a Russian coup against Sochi talks and previous agreements between Russia and Turkey.
Russian coup
The military and strategic analyst General Ahmad Rahal stresses that the Syrian scene will pass through a complete Russian coup against all political solutions and understandings between the Russian President Vladimir Putin and his counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, pointing to Moscow’s intention to impose its will through military force.
The analyst also says: “It’s clear that the military option has become the only option for Moscow, Tehran, and Damascus as well, which isn’t something new, and all what Russia had done in Astana was a discharge of Geneva talks, and all what it had done in Geneva was a waste of time, thus, the coup is a normal act.”
He added: “Sure, Russia wants to impose its will through military force because it wasn’t able to achieve its agendas through political ways; therefore, it wants to impose the appropriate political solution for its interests and the interests of Tehran and Damascus by using the military force. This is now what is going on in the front lines of fighting.”
Disagreements and useless advance
Regarding the ongoing field operations on the ground inside de-escalation zones, the former Brigadier General Ahmad Rahal commented that the progress on the ground is futile for the Syrian government forces, which have only taken back about1% of the Syrian territories.
Brig. Gen. Rahal said regarding the casualties in the ranks of the Syrian army, that there are about 1700 killed soldiers and thousands of injuries, and that the local government hospitals have no longer accommodated all these human losses. He also pointed to “mutual accusations between the Russian airbase in Hmeimim and Quwwat al-Nimr (Tiger Forces), Suhail al-Hasan and the 5th Corps, Quwwat al-Nimr and the Republican Guards, and between Talal Makhlouf and Brigadier Suhail al-Hasan.
Rahal considers that “the opposition groups have to take the initiative,” adding that “After Astana, a kind of change occurred in the Russian tactics, as scorched-earth policy became real, and a war of extermination on the opposition areas, with night fighting and provide reinforcements from the trained forces that managed to achieve a major advance toward Khan Shaykhun”.
Turkey is in a difficult position
Brig. Gen. Rahal also says that Turkey today is not in a good position nor feels satisfied, as it is under the US pressure regarding the east of Euphrates, Russian pressure in Menagh and Tal Rifaat, and pressure in their inability to get rid of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib, the matter that led Turkey to follow a policy that satisfies all the parties.
Rahal told North-Press: “The Turks aren’t able to respond to the Russians and fulfill their demands, nor can they meet the requirements of the Free Syrian Army.”
Rahal also stressed that there is a paradigm shift and the missile that downed the Sukhoi 22 was likely launched by Turkey as a kind of Turkish resentment and as sending a message to Moscow that they had exceeded Turkish red lines.”
Rahal considers the participation of the Turkish-backed National Army in the battles of Idlib as an opportunity for a change, hoping that the forces that brought the national army are aiming to fight and not as a separation force.
He concluded that: “If the situation continues this way, the opposition groups will take control of the wheel of events, and I think this could change the maps in a new way.”