Military analyst: Russia believes that the military solution is the only in Syria
Istanbul – North-Press Agency
Samer Taha
After Iran, Russia is now mastering the military and political decision in the de-escalation zones, as Russia sees that the military solution is the only solution in Syria, as according to what Ahmad Rahhal, military, and strategic analyst sees.
“As for both the Russians and Al-Assad regime, the plan is one, the regime no longer has a foothold, today, Russia is the one who controls militarily and politically,” stated brigadier general Ahmad Rahhal, military, and strategic analyst to “North-Press” in an exclusive interview.
“Iran was in control of the military situation, but after Russia’s intervention, Hmeimim Air Base became the military and political decision maker, as Iranians are part of the agenda, but sometimes they dissatisfy the Russian desires and act on their own until they became in control of most of the Syrian state,” Rahhal said.
The military analyst pointed out that the Russians are convinced that the solution in Syria is a military only, However, it’s not a possible option of which the United States will accept, leading Russia to impose fait accompli policy.
“We have noticed that all the pledges made by Russia which the West interacted with, by reducing arms provided for the Free Syrian Army (FSA), were met with the devouring of the so-called de-escalation zones except Idlib”. Rahhal added.
Rahhal stated that Russians failed to choose any political solution saying “Therefore, they are now trying to annex Idlib region and impose a policy of fait accompli and that there is no opposition, no FSA or revolution, after that they will bring the solution they wish aiming at preserving Bashar Al-Assad rule and reconstruct the country with the funds provided by the Gulf states along with the incomes of the country, hence, the issue ends here”.
As a result, this is the reason behind the continuous bombing in the areas of Idlib and northern Hama, north of Syria, according to Rahhal.
Turkish position
As for the Turkish position on the bombing and how it deals with, as one of the main guarantors of the cease-fire in the region, the military analyst says: “Turkey is in a bittersweet situation, where it doesn’t trust Russia and knows that their agenda is with Bashar Al-Assad and Iran in the end, but it tries to save what is possible to be saved”.
“At the same time, it doesn’t trust the Americans either, “as they let Turkey down like the NATO did when Turkey faced Russia and shot down a Russian warplane,” Rahhal said.
“Therefore, Turkey is trying to exploit both Russia and the United States, in an attempt to get as much leverage and benefits as possible, and through the intersection of interests with (FSA or the Syrian revolution) aiming to achieve something,” He continued.
He pointed out that the main objective for Turkey is its national security, it was subjected to a coup attempt supported by some regional states, also by the United States.
“Russia has also betrayed Turkey more than once, the last time was in the current battle in Hama countryside, so Turkey is not trying to antagonize the two sides, as we noticed that everything Russia did, had no hostile response by Turkey, that doesn’t mean that Turkey agrees with the Russian objectives, rather, it cannot rely on the US or lean on them,” he added.
Therefore “Through this mess that took place between two great nations, Turkey is trying to survive with the least possible losses, also we mustn’t forget that it has about 4 million Syrians living in Turkey and a competing opposition”.
Syrian Government Forces Losses
As for the losses of the Syrian government forces in their battles in the de-escalation zones, Rahhal said, “Despite the lack of trust between US and Turkey, both do agree on one point that they will not allow Russia to take control of Idlib and the countryside of the Latakia, Hama, and Aleppo before getting Iran out of Syria”.
“If they could reach an agreement in Jerusalem security meeting for a real Russian pledge to get Iran out of Syria, Russia will get the opportunity to control Idlib and its surroundings, as Russia won’t be allowed to approach Idlib before doing so. So, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) received support from Turkey, groups of “The Euphrates Shield” and “Olive Branch” along with the United States, where they were delivered TOW missiles to demoralize Russians before Jerusalem and Osaka summits.” He continued.
“As I know, Alexander Lavrentiev, the head of Astana conference, arrived in Damascus four days ago, holding a message of threat and rebuke to Bashar Al-Assad that said If you are forced to empty the surroundings of the capital from the Republican Guards, you must do and send them to Hama, where Putin wants to achieve victory before taking part in Trump-Putin meeting in the Japanese city of Osaka at the end of this month.” He added.
The military analyst notes that what is happening in the countryside of Hama today, is an “insult to Russia,” since they intended to control all of the international roads and at least, half of the opposition-held areas before heading to Jerusalem meeting.
He pointed out that today, Russia is present at Jerusalem meeting “after being slapped on its face by FSA, as the US and Turkey’s support were behind the losses, while the will of FSA members of fighting gave them the power to fight until the last breath, and in order not to repeat the scenario of the south.”
Furthermore, he stressed that the United States had a big role in conquering the Russians, and “the Russians must make a pledge in West Jerusalem meeting, that they will work with the United States and Israel to get the Iranians out of Syria militarily, because this is required now, yet it is possible that they may let them stay politically and economically, as Iran along with Hezbollah and its groups must leave Syria”.
Moreover, Rahhal believes that if the Russians don’t make this pledge and stay neutral, at least positively, “the support for FSA will not only be limited to TOW missiles, but it will also be supported with anti-aircraft guns, as I believe.”