Idlib, between Turkish delay and Russian patience

The debate over the future of Idlib, the last stronghold of armed opposition groups in Syria, and the biggest obstacle in front of political settlement of the crisis there continue with a decline in the level of optimism upon Astana understandings in this regard. 

According to the Russian analyst of military affairs, Igor Barantsev, Turkey is responsible for the delay in implementing the related clause on the separation of the opposition armed groups on the basis of terrorist groups and moderate ones, and the expelling of all the extremist groups out of Idlib, and finding a place for them to go to, according to Astana understandings.  

Questions were raised about the content of the Russian patience towards Ankara’s delays, especially as Moscow is one of the most interested parties in finding a political solution to the Syrian crisis.

 

The Russian analyst ruled out the possibility of an agreed scenario between Moscow and Turkey about Idlib issue, describing their relationship as a protective fire hiding behind a diplomatic cover aims to be in contact with Erdogan and keep him under the Russian eyes.  

Moreover, Mr. Barantsev hints that Moscow predicts a geopolitical failure to Erdogan, Russia’s decision-making apparatus are wary of Turkey’s attempts to exploit the Russian-American contradictions about the Syrian crisis and blackmailing Washington through the Russian S-400 system purchase to gain greater freedom of movement in the regional space, where Turkey owns the final decision.   

Although he doesn’t rule out a new diplomatic move to save and activate Astana’s understandings, yet, Barantsev expects Turkey’s growing aggressiveness in Idlib, as it senses that it is losing its last stronghold in Syria. 

The Turkish influence received a painful blow in Libya, with the fall of Al-Sarraj Government against the forces led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, causing confusion to Erdogan’s Government and spreading a state of healing among his opponents within the political scene in Turkey, at the same time.  

As for Idlib, he sees that Moscow is well aware that stopping Ankara’s support to the terrorist groups in Idlib, will make the latter a palatable morsel for Syrian and Russian forces, if so, Ankara will be deprived of its influence in Idlib and weaken Erdogan as the Syrian Army and its allies are restoring vast and strategic areas in Syria.  

In the same context, he says that the situation in the Syrian governorate is still far from any political solutions, and what complicates the situation more is the captivity of its inhabitants at the mercy of Turkey’s extremist groups and to the mercy of a regional political game run by Turkey, and its attempts to expand its scope of influence.

Barantsev also provides another reminder, that Erdogan had repeatedly asked the Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the Syrian army’s operations in Idlib, but he made it clear that Turkey would eventually admit that its adventures in Syria came closer than ever to its greatest geopolitical loss in the 21st century.