QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Researchers and experts on extremist organizations have warned that the Islamic State (ISIS) continues to pose a significant threat in Syria, arguing that the group retains the capabilities needed to sustain security and military operations while taking advantage of the political and security conditions surrounding the country’s transitional period.
The warnings come a day after ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack targeting an oil tanker near the northern Syrian city of Manbij.
Earlier this week, two members of Syria’s Interior Ministry were killed and several others injured in a suicide bombing targeting a security facility in Raqqa Governorate, northern Syria. State-run al-Ikhbariya news channel reported that security forces eliminated one of the attackers, while the second detonated an explosive vest after being surrounded.
Long-term threat
Ahmed Sultan, a researcher specializing in terrorism and extremist groups, said eastern Syria has historically been one of ISIS’s most active areas, both during the height of the group’s territorial control and in the years that followed.
Speaking to North Press, Sultan noted that ISIS established extensive networks and sleeper cells across the region and continues to represent a long-term security threat.
However, he argued that a return to the group’s previous model—seizing large territories and declaring a so-called “Wilayah” or state—is unlikely in the current environment.
“ISIS has shifted toward a strategy of attrition warfare,” Sultan said. “The group is focused on rebuilding itself and developing its capabilities for the future.”
Decentralized leadership model
According to Sultan, ISIS is expected to continue pursuing a strategy based on chaos and prolonged attrition while seeking to recruit new supporters, fighters, and sympathizers.
“The organization has transferred much of its operational center of gravity to Africa, particularly West Africa and the Sahel region,” he said. “At the same time, Syria remains an important base for leadership and strategic direction, even as the group increasingly embraces decentralized command structures.”
Syria and Iraq as the “Head”
Sultan rejected the notion that Syria has become a secondary arena for ISIS, describing it instead as a core theater alongside Iraq.
“The organization views Syria and Iraq as the ‘head,’ while Africa and Asia represent the ‘arms,’” he said.
He added that ISIS is likely to continue targeting security personnel through attrition-style attacks and may seek to exploit the presence of foreign fighters in Syria by encouraging them to join its ranks.
“All of this makes ISIS a serious threat to Syria’s current authorities and to broader regional security and stability,” he warned.
Instability fuels extremism
Muneer Adeeb, an Egypt-based expert on extremist organizations, argued that Syria’s ongoing instability has created conditions favorable to militant groups.
He pointed to the fragility of state institutions and tensions surrounding the participation of Syria’s diverse religious and ethnic communities in political life as factors contributing to uncertainty and disorder.
“Syria remains in a transitional phase, and such environments often provide fertile ground for extremist groups, especially ISIS,” Adeeb told North Press.
“ISIS has benefited—and continues to benefit—from the instability that persists in Syria,” he added.
Kurdish role
Adeeb emphasized the significant role played by Kurdish forces in combating ISIS over the past decade.
He argued that tensions between the central government and Kurdish actors, coupled with what he described as insufficient Kurdish participation in constitutional processes, parliamentary elections, and state institutions, may create openings that allow the extremist group to remain active.
“The continuation of these conditions could affect Syria’s political future and may contribute to bringing the organization back to the forefront,” he said.
Need for inclusive governance
Adeeb stressed that addressing these challenges requires broader political participation by all Syrian communities, stronger state institutions, and more inclusive policies that ensure representation across the country’s diverse social and political spectrum.
Such measures, he said, would help reduce the governance and security gaps that extremist organizations exploit to reorganize and expand their activities.
“The success of Syria’s transitional period depends on the ability of political forces to reach comprehensive national consensus and address the causes of tension and division,” Adeeb said.
“Any delay in implementing political and security reforms could provide extremist groups with additional opportunities to exploit the current situation.”