By Abdulsalam Khoja
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Economic analysts have raised doubts about the accuracy of a recent report issued by the Syrian Central Bank regarding the country’s general inflation rate for 2024, calling the report “inaccurate.”
According to the Syrian Central Bank’s report, the inflation rate in Syria for 2024 reached 57 percent, which is higher than Lebanon’s 45.5 percent but lower than Turkey’s 58.6 percent for the same period.
A report that raises questions
Commenting on the report, economist Mohammad Al-Hafid told North Press that its findings raise important questions. “Can the state sustain this decline in inflation?”
He added, “In my opinion, this is unlikely because the decline is driven by short-term measures, such as external aid and temporary financial transfers, rather than long-term structural reforms.”
The report also noted that for the first time, Syria recorded a negative monthly inflation rate of -13.8 percent in December 2024, significantly lower than 0.1 percent in November of the same year.
The Central Bank attributed this decline to a significant drop in inflationary pressures following a substantial increase in supply and an improvement in the exchange rate.
Unusual indicator
Al-Hafid described the negative monthly inflation rate as an unusual indicator, particularly for a country like Syria, which has been grappling with chronic economic crises.
He explained that the decline was likely driven by the liberalization of the exchange rate and an increase in imports, but warned that it also signals potential economic contraction due to a drop in real income and purchasing power.
“The lack of independent international oversight means that variables such as changes in measurement methodology and temporary foreign aid could affect the report’s findings,” he noted.
For sustainable economic stability, al-Hafid emphasized the need for long-term policies that address the root causes of Syria’s economic crisis.
“These policies should focus on boosting local production, rebuilding infrastructure, stabilizing the exchange rate, and tackling financial and administrative corruption,” he said.
“This requires careful monitoring to avoid entering a state of recession or economic collapse.”
He also warned that Syria’s economic recovery remains fragile, making it vulnerable to setbacks in the face of political shocks, whether internal or external.
Inaccurate figures
Meanwhile, Syrian economic expert Ahmad Yassin dismissed the Central Bank’s figures as inaccurate and unreliable, arguing that Syria’s economy has lost its fundamental pillars.
Speaking to North Press from London, Yassin stated, “The Syrian economy has lost its core foundations due to a series of economic sanctions imposed by major global economic blocs, which cannot be ignored.”
He pointed out that Syria’s exclusion from the global financial system due to these sanctions has had a severe impact on the country’s food supply and the ability of financial institutions to accurately assess inflation levels.
“The figures released by the Syrian Central Bank are unreliable, and under such a sensitive economic situation, no financial institution can provide an accurate and realistic assessment of Syria’s economy,” he said.
Yassin believes that Syria’s economic recovery hinges on one key factor, the immediate lifting of sanctions to allow the economy to regain its footing and resume normal activity.