By Ahmed Othman
RAQQA, Syria (North Press) – The Islamic State (ISIS) is increasing its activities in Syria, leveraging the ongoing instability to reorganize, stockpile weapons, and launch new attacks. Despite continuous counterterrorism efforts, experts warn that ISIS could stage a major comeback, potentially stronger than before.
On Monday, Mazloum Abdi, commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), highlighted the group’s growing influence, particularly in the Syrian desert. “There is a security vacuum that ISIS is exploiting to establish strategic locations and acquire weapons,” Abdi told The Times.
This warning comes on the heels of a U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) operation targeting a senior financial and logistical official of Hurras al-Din, an al-Qaeda-linked faction. Simultaneously, the Austrian government linked a recent deadly attack in Villach to an ISIS-affiliated assailant, underscoring the group’s persistent global influence.
A Fragile Security Landscape
Experts attribute ISIS’s resurgence to Syria’s fragile political and security conditions. Researcher Munir Adib, a specialist in extremist groups, noted that the absence of a strong central authority—coupled with tensions between the SDF and other factions—creates opportunities for ISIS cells to operate more freely.
Adib believes that Turkish military operations in northern Syria further destabilize the region, indirectly benefiting ISIS. He predicts an uptick in ISIS attacks, particularly targeting prisons and detention centers in northeast Syria, where an estimated 12,000 ISIS members, including foreign fighters, are held.
The Al-Hol camp, home to tens of thousands of ISIS family members, is another point of concern. On Sunday, Qahraman Murad, an official with the SDF’s internal security forces (Asayish), expressed fears that the ongoing instability in the camp could trigger an organized escape effort or coordinated attacks.
Weaponized Extremism?
Some analysts argue that ISIS may be used as a “weaponized” tool in broader regional conflicts. Political analyst Mustafa al-Nuaimi suggests that the group’s resurgence could be linked to external influence, particularly from Iran. “There is always a possibility of using ISIS as a destabilizing factor to serve regional power struggles,” he told North Press.
Nuaimi does not foresee a full-scale ISIS revival unless external actors actively support it. However, he warns that Iran could facilitate the movement of extremists across the Iraq-Syria border, particularly in Deir ez-Zor and Hasakah provinces, where weak governance makes such operations easier.
U.S. Surveillance and Countermeasures
U.S. forces continue to monitor ISIS activity closely, conducting regular aerial reconnaissance over key border areas. Reports indicate that American F-18 jets have been patrolling the Syria-Iraq border, signaling Washington’s readiness to counter any major ISIS resurgence.
Meanwhile, SDF operations remain ongoing. Since December, the SDF—backed by the U.S.-led coalition—has conducted 75 raids against ISIS cells. Last Saturday, an SDF counterterrorism unit dismantled an ISIS cell in Deir ez-Zor, arresting three high-profile militants, including cell leader Abdulrahman al-Aziz.
Despite these efforts, security experts stress that without a long-term political solution and strengthened governance, ISIS will continue to exploit the chaos.