By Khalaf Ma’o
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Amid rising tensions following the October 7 attacks, the conflict in Gaza has drawn in Hezbollah, raising fears over broader regional instability.
Analysts see that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, facing his own internal challenges, is attempting to leverage the situation to reassert his role in the Arab-Israeli conflict—without risking direct confrontation with Israel.
For over a decade, Iran has supported al-Assad, mobilizing Hezbollah to fight in Syria. However, Hezbollah remains absent from the current hostilities between its allies and Israel in Gaza and Lebanon.
Assad’s strategic moves
Russian political analyst Dmitry Bridzhe believes that al-Assad could benefit from an Israeli-Lebanese escalation by diverting attention from Syria’s internal crises and reviving his regional influence.
In an interview with North Press, Bridzhe emphasized that Syria has long been a key player in the Arab-Israeli conflict, but the Syrian conflict has eroded its ability to intervene directly.
“Al-Assad’s options are limited,” Bridzhe noted, “as entering a direct confrontation with Israel via a Lebanon-based war could destabilize his government.”
He added that al-Assad is strategically avoiding direct conflict to preserve what remains of Syria’s military capabilities.
Bridzhe also highlighted that Syria has shifted its focus towards internal survival after years of military and economic exhaustion.
Al-Assad relies on Hezbollah and the broader Axis of Resistance to engage Israel militarily, while Syria plays a more subdued diplomatic role, partly due to its dependence on Iran, according to the Russian analyst.
Refugees and international aid
The Syrian president is also looking to gain economically and politically by welcoming Syrian and Lebanese refugees fleeing Israeli bombardments along the 375-kilometer Lebanon-Syria border.
Experts suggest that international aid, brought in to address the refugee crisis, could provide al-Assad with economic opportunities and a chance to manage the situation in Lebanon indirectly.
According to political and strategic analyst Ahmad Rahal, al-Assad is distancing himself from the “unity of fields” strategy, which he describes as an Iranian attempt to limit Israel’s attacks on its proxies, particularly in Lebanon.
Rahal believes that the Syrian president’s cautious approach is due to explicit threats from Israel, which reportedly warned it would target the Syrian presidential palace if al-Assad intervened in Lebanon.
Israel’s messages and regional dynamics
A recent report from the Israeli newspaper Maariv highlighted that while most parties in the Axis of Resistance are engaged in the current conflict, Syria remains on the sidelines.
Since the Gaza war began, al-Assad has been careful not to get directly involved, despite Israeli airstrikes targeting the Iranian consulate in Damascus—strikes that could have sparked a broader conflict.
Rahal further claimed that al-Assad has received multiple warnings from Israel, and that Israeli strikes have even targeted positions held by al-Assad’s brother, Maher al-Assad. There are rumors that Maher has fled to an Arab country, while Bashar al-Assad continues to rely heavily on Russian protection.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is also reported to have advised al-Assad, during a visit to Moscow in July, to stay out of any future Israeli conflicts. Putin’s advice comes amid expectations that Israel is preparing a significant military escalation in the region.
Humanitarian response
Meanwhile, in northeastern Syria, al-Assad has called for urgent relief efforts to accommodate refugees fleeing Lebanon. During a meeting with Hasakah Governor Louay Sayouh and international NGOs, al-Assad stressed the importance of increasing humanitarian support.
International engagement with the Syrian government has slowly resumed over the past two years, despite persistent accusations of mismanagement.
On Oct. 8, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Filippo Grandi launched a $324 million fundraising appeal to assist refugees fleeing Lebanon into Syria. This followed his meeting with Bashar al-Assad in Damascus to discuss support for the new arrivals.
In addition, the European Union announced an emergency funding package of €500,000 to support UNHCR operations, aimed at addressing the humanitarian needs of those displaced by the conflict for at least the next six months.
However, Syrian Minister of Social Affairs and Labor Samar al-Sebai expressed disappointment with the limited response from international NGOs so far.
According to al-Sebai, the ongoing economic sanctions imposed on Syria continue to affect all aspects of Syrian life, complicating efforts to provide adequate support for refugees.
As regional tensions remain high, al-Assad appears to be treading carefully—seeking to gain from the shifting dynamics while avoiding a direct clash with Israel that could threaten his regime.