By Abdulsalam Khoja
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Turkey has made several overtures to Syria in a bid to restore diplomatic relations despite years of disagreements. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, however, has rebuffed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s invitations for dialogue, insisting on the withdrawal of Turkish forces as a condition for negotiations.
Analysts suggest that Erdogan’s push for reconciliation is more about addressing domestic issues than a genuine desire for cooperation.
Erdogan, did not spare any opportunity to call for a meeting with al-Assad in a bid to restore diplomatic ties, often highlighting their shared family connections.
For years, Erdogan criticized al-Assad in his statements, especially as he supported the Syrian protests that later developed into an armed conflict, peaking in 2013. At that time Erdogan famously declared that he would not talk with al-Assad, leveling various accusations and insults against him.
Throughout the Syrian war, Erdogan consistently labeled al-Assad as a criminal and a terrorist. However, the landscape shifted in 2022 when Turkish forces occupied parts of Syria following operations that Erdogan frequently referenced in his speeches while calling for a meeting with al-Assad. Despite this overture, Assad has declined to meet Erdogan as long as Turkish forces remain in Syrian territory.
Recently, Erdogan has expressed a strong desire to meet with al-Assad, while the latter ignores these invitations, despite mediation efforts by both Russia and Iraq.
Meanwhile, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) asserts that Turkey’s efforts to reconcile with the Syrian government are primarily driven by the goal of undermining the AANES. This perspective is reinforced by recent statements from Turkish officials proclaiming their intent to form an alliance with the Syrian government to further isolate the AANES.
Unlikely reconciliation
Islam Ozkan, a Turkish analyst, states to North Press that security concerns are pivotal in the normalization of relations between Turkey and Syria. He noted that in light of the presence of the AANES, achieving normalization could potentially curtail the influence of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Ozkan highlights that, as a mediator in the normalization process, Russia aims to enhance its influence in the region. This goal aligns with Turkey’s interests in facilitating company operations in Syria and promoting trade between the two countries.
The presence of Turkish forces in northern Syria is a problem for the Syrian government, which has made Turkey’s complete withdrawal from all Syrian territory as a prerequisite for initiating negotiations. The Syrian government remains resolute and “unwilling to compromise” on this matter, he adds.
Ozkan dismisses the possibility of a near-term withdrawal of Turkey from Syrian territories. He notes that Turkey appears to be considering a timetable for its withdrawal from northern Syria to negotiate an agreement with the Syrian government. A key factor in this situation is whether Russia will be able to persuade the Syrian government to cooperate, he says.
Ozkan indicates that the absence of trust between the two parties stems from Turkey’s support for the opposition and the Syrian government’s positions on the SDF. The Turkish analyst did not exclude that the Syrian government might pursue a tactical cooperation with the AANES.
The Turkish researcher argues that rapprochement is unlikely at this time, as the Syrian government views Turkish military operations in northern Syria as a violation of its sovereignty. Furthermore, the ongoing clashes in Idlib Governorate in northwestern Syria, coupled with Turkey’s support for opposition armed factions, aka the Syrian National Army (SNA), remain significant points of contention between the Syrian government and Turkey.
Moreover, as Ozkan points out, the de-escalation agreements between Turkey and Russia lack a full endorsement of the Syrian government, leading to ongoing tension.
Embraced
Bassam Barbandi, a Syrian analyst and former diplomat, believes that the Syrian government has embraced the Turkish initiative. He suggests that it is only a matter of time before a mechanism for dialogue between the parties is established.
Barbandi emphasizes that Erdogan aims to convey to his people that he is actively working to address the challenges posed by Syrian refugees in Turkey.
He adds that Erdogan wants to take the initiative from the Turkish opposition by communicating with the Syrian government.
Barbandi, who resides in Washington, explains to North Press that, from the Turkish perspective, the issue of military withdrawal is tied to the resolution of the Syrian crisis and should not be viewed as a prerequisite for normalizing relations with the Syrian government. He emphasizes that reinstating ties between the two parties would be an easy process.