By Saya Muhammad
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – As Israel claims it will take security responsibilities in Gaza after the war with Hamas, varied western stances have emerged, viewing the “day-after” strategy in the strip.
Both Israel and the US agree that Hamas cannot be returned to power in Gaza, but the views on the following years in Gaza after the conflict with a set of grim scenarios have emerged, including the return of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to power, having international forces, a two-state solution, and others.
Israel
In an interview with the ABC News on Nov.6, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel for “an indefinite period will have the overall security responsibility” in Gaza.
Additionally, he told foreign ambassadors in Tel Aviv that after “victory” over Hamas, the Gazan and the people of the Middle East will maintain “a real future…future of promise and hope.”
After a brief civil war in 2007 with Abbas’ Fatah party, Hamas took over Gaza; however, years of reconciliation talks between the rivals failed to reach a breakthrough for resuming PA administration of Gaza.
“IDF forces will remain in control of the strip, we will not give it to international forces,” Netanyahu added on Nov. 10 in response to proposals made by the Biden administration officials for an international transitional force in Gaza to pave the way for an eventual return of the PA.
The PA was founded in the wake of the Oslo Accords in the mid-1990s, and it runs the West Bank.
Benny Gantz, member of the Israeli Knesset, said on Nov. 8, “We need to replace the Hamas regime and ensure security superiority for us.”
Gantz stressed, “Once the Gaza area is safe, and the northern area will be safe…we will settle down and review an alternative mechanism for Gaza.”
United States
The case in the corridors of the Pentagon was different, US President Joe Biden called for a peace deal and the creation of a Palestinian state away from occupation.
Biden said Israel occupying Gaza would be a “big mistake.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was cited by Reuters as saying at a press conference in Tokyo, “Post-crisis governance in Gaza must include Palestinian voices. Gaza unified with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority…No reoccupation of Gaza after the conflict ends.”
He suggested that in the meantime, “there are other temporary arrangements that may involve a number of other countries in the region. It may involve international agencies.”
Palestinians, according to White House spokesperson John Kirby, should be “the determining voice and factor in their future.”
In an interviewing with the ABC, Biden Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said that after the conflict, “we cannot go back to a pre-Oct. 7 environment in Gaza where [terrorists] can threaten Israel in that way.”
Finer stressed the importance of reaching the “two-state solution,” which Biden and Blinken support.
European Union
As for the EU, the post-war Gaza region will be an “international protectorate,” confirming that it is an essential part of any future Palestinian state.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on Nov. 6 during a meeting of the EU’s overseas ambassadors in Brussels that Hamas after the 2007 war “immediately” began rebuilding its arsenal in preparation for the next conflict “this cannot be the case any longer. Different ideas are being discussed…including an international peace force under UN mandate.”
Leyen proposed five “basic principles” anchored in the perspective of a two-state solution to guide the future of Gaza after the end of Hamas.
She put them as follows: No safe haven for terrorists, no Hamas-led government, no long-term Israeli security presence, no forced displacement of Palestinians, no sustained blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt since 2007.
Josep Borrell, EU foreign affairs chief, had the feeling that the conflict between Hamas and Israel, which he assimilated to that between Russia and Ukraine, would be “an inflectional point in history.”
He went further adding that even if Israel were to succeed, there will be “a spiral of violence and mutual hate” for generations and the issue of Gaza or the West Bank will not be solved if they fail to take the last chance for the two-state solution.
United Nations
A “hopefully re-invigorated” Palestinian Authority was the “best-case scenario” as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres put it on Nov.8.
Western media
Toppling Hamas, based on a report publicized by Foreign Policy (FP), an American news publication founded in 1970, would “leave a governance and political vacuum in its wake and a humanitarian crisis of unthinkable proportions.”
The report was based on interviewing and questioning US and Israeli officials and diplomats, as well as, intelligence officials, Palestinian scholars, and regional experts regarding the future of Gaza after war.
David Makovsky, a senior advisor to the special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations at the US State Department, told the FP that options in the Gaza zone will be “suboptimal options.”
Jonathan Freedland, a Guardian columnist, hinted that talks have recently floated about establishing a “neo-trusteeship,” with other countries acting to create order and with the PA to run the strip is the right choice.
However, the PA would not accept such a plan without heading to a “genuine Palestinian statehood,” he added, and this would require a radical strategic shift by Israel, starting with a change of government and prime minister.
The PA Prime Minister, Mohammad Shtayyeh, for his part told PBS last week, “We are not going to go to Gaza on an Israeli military tank, we are going to go to Gaza as part of a solution that deals with the question of Palestine that deals with occupation.”
The Politico, a US based politics focused newspaper company, cited the former prime minister and chief of the Israel Defense Forces Ehud Barak as saying that “a multinational Arab force” could have to take control of Gaza after the military campaign.
Barak, who led Israel between 1999 and 2001, noted that the Arab force can help in bringing back Mahmoud Abbas’ PA.
He suggested that some non-Arab countries can also be involved for some months to help PA to take over properly.
Think-tanks
However, some officials and experts in this field claimed that Israel, in light of the lack of significant political support to the PA by Palestinians and without a ready replacement for Hamas, will have little choice but to assume direct control over Gaza.
In an interview with VOA, Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House, a London-based policy institute, said “Who is sucked into this vacuum? It might be even worse than Hamas. I think we move into an interim period…there should be a regional element to this.”
Pal-Think for Strategic Studies, an independent non-profit Palestinian think, proposed three options for the next five years in Gaza after the conflict.
The options include achieving reconciliation, returning the PA to rule, with the participation of Hamas, reaching a long-term truce with Israel, and creating an independent Gaza entity.
Since the eruption of war in Gaza on Oct. 7, more than 1,400 Israeli soldiers and civilians were killed by Hamas militants, and more than 200 others were taken hostage.
Israel’s aerial bombing and ground attacks on Hamas targets since then have killed more than 10,000 people in the strip, including several thousand women and children, according to Hamas-run health authorities. Moreover, anticipating the future of the Gaza Strip right now in the wake of the growing events on ground is hard to be predicted with the two parties to the conflict trying to give the toughest hit to each other.