By Ahmad Othman
QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – Six years have passed since the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced the elimination of Islamic State (ISIS) in Raqqa Governorate, north Syria. However, the group still remains present on the ground in Syria.
ISIS activities
ISIS is present in the form of small groups in the Syrian Desert and seeks to assert its presence through releasing footages, showcasing masked individuals carrying weapons and vehicles.
The group also maintains a presence through sleeper cells that carry out individual operations against the SDF and government forces. Furthermore, some of its militants who have joined pro-Turkish armed factions can also be considered as cells.
Media reports have documented the presence of ISIS militants within the Turkish-backed opposition factions known as the Syrian National Army (SNA), as well as the relocation of families of ISIS militants to areas controlled by Turkey and its affiliated factions.
The US-led Global Coalition has targeted ISIS militants in areas controlled by Turkey through drone strikes and airborne operations.
Since the announcement of the ISIS’s expulsion from its last stronghold in the town of Baghuz, eastern Deir ez-Zor, in March 2019, ISIS has continued to carry out operations against the SDF, despite ongoing security operations targeting its cells.
In 2022, the group claimed responsibility for 185 attacks in areas held by the Autonomous Administration of North and east Syria (AANES) targeting civilians and the SDF military personnel. The majority of these operations were carried out in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor. In contrast, in 2021, ISIS claimed responsibility for 31 attacks resulting in the death of 171 individuals and injuring 30 others.
Despite security operations against ISIS militants, they continue to adapt their strategies based on the changing circumstances on the ground and the perspectives of their evolving leadership, who seek to modify these strategies.
The emergence of ISIS is closely connected to the regional conditions. The group’s expansion and retreat are influenced by security and political developments in the Syrian and Iraqi territories under its control, according to Issam al-Fili, an expert in extremist groups and a professor of political science.
Al-Fili told North Press that ISIS emerged in areas characterized by security chaos, particularly in rugged and desert regions.
He believes that ISIS is an ideological entity, serving as a safe haven for those who oppose the existing political system and driven by extremist Islamic beliefs.
Al-Fili points out that the strength of the group varies depending on its relationships with various international and regional intelligence agencies, which use it as a tool to undermine the domestic stability in Iraq and Syria.
ISIS Caliphs
Five leaders have led the group, with the most recent one, Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi being appointed in early August.
He followed four leaders, two of whom were killed in the Turkish-backed SNA-held areas, namely Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October 2019 and Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi in February 2022, both targeted by the Global Calition.
Another caliph, Abu al-Hussein al-Husaini al-Qurashi, was killed in Afrin Region, northwest Syria. Turkey claimed responsibility, while ISIS claims he died from injuries in clashes with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS – formerly al-Nusra Front).
As for the third leader, the US military stated that opposition factions killed him in Daraa Governorate, south Syria. The Syrian government forces also claimed responsibility for his killing at that time.
There was a considerable time gap between the announcements of caliphs following the deaths of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi, particularly when it came to the third and fourth leaders. However, it took over four months to announce the fifth caliph.
Al-Fili suggests that armed groups without a clearly defined geographical presence face challenges in highlighting multiple leaders, making the process of selecting a leader quite complex.
Although ISIS may have already chosen its leader, they refrain from announcing it due to the fear of being targeted.
ISIS’s decision to delay the announcement of its caliph is due to concerns regarding international intelligence cooperation in targeting the chosen leader, according to al-Fili.
The expert believes that ISIS leaders may have agreed to delay or not disclose the name of the caliph, especially since any caliph chosen is likely to be killed shortly thereafter.
ISIS carefully chooses a leader to show its presence, attract new individuals, and maintain unity among its followers.
Anticipation
Al-Fili said that ISIS cells are present on the ground in northeast Syria, as well as in the Syrian Desert and Iraqi Desert. ISIS takes advantage of the harsh terrain and ease of movement in these desert and wilderness areas using various methods.
He pointed out that the group closely monitors the events unfolding in northeast Syria and waits for a weakening of security measures to exploit the opportunity to attack and control.
During the recent security tensions in Deir ez-Zor, ISIS was inactive, as it did not claim responsibility for any attacks at that period of time.
The security tensions in Deir ez-Zor arose due to the arrest of a military council leader by the SDF, prompting his supporters to confront with the SDF, which give an opportunity to the government forces and the Iranian-backed factions to exploit the tensions and intervene in the eastern Euphrates region.
Statistics
Since the beginning of 2023, a total of 111 security operations have been conducted against ISIS in the AANES-held areas. These operations include 21 airborne operations, resulting in the arrest of 576 militants, the killing of 29 others, and the injury of three suspects affiliated with ISIS.
In the city of Raqqa, there have been 25 operations in which 194 individuals were arrested, two were killed, and one suspect affiliated with ISIS was injured, according to the Monitoring and Documentation Department of North Press.
The SDF carried out 20 operations, including 13 security campaigns, resulting in the arrest of 186 militants, the killing of one militant, and the injury of another.
The SDF and the Global Coalition participated in four operations, including two security campaigns and one airborne operation, leading to the arrest of eight militants and the killing of one.
Furthermore, the number of ISIS attacks reached 138, resulting in the killing of 183 individuals, including 17 civilians, and the injury of 152 individuals, including 15 civilians.