By Mo’ayed al-Sheikh
IDLIB, Syria (North Press) – Ratib al-Nayef is perturbed with fears following the brutal shelling by Syrian government forces on opposition-controlled areas in northwestern Syria.
Al-Nayef, 34, a resident in the town of Ihsim in southern Idlib, believes that the heavy shelling by Syrian government forces on the region after months of de-escalation “has increased the residents’ fears of a military operation.” Ihsim is located 13 kilometers away from government-held areas.
Residents in Idlib, northwestern Syria, in the area held by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are worried about a new military operation by government forces and Russia in the area, especially in light of the military escalation that is considered the most intense since 2020.
The escalation has risen doubts regarding Turkey’s position of these attacks, which has more than 60 military posts and bases in Idlib and its countryside and neighboring areas.
Since Oct. 12, opposition-held areas in northwestern Syria have been witnessing intensive bombardment by government forces and Russian warplanes, resulting in the killing and injury of more than 230 civilians, including dozens of children and women.
This escalation has come in retaliation for an attack against a government military academy in Homs by drones that killed around 100 soldiers, officers, and some civilians. The Syrian government blamed “terrorist groups backed by known international forces” for the attack, something which Idlib residents considered a pretext to launch a new military operation in the area.
Fragile trust with the Turkish guarantor
Idlib residents have a bitter experience with Turkey as a guarantor state of the ceasefire agreement signed with Russia in 2018, which stipulates halt of all military activity in the region.
Al-Nayef told North Press, “Despite the significant presence of Turkish posts in the Zawiya Mountain, this does not prevent the Syrian regime forces from advancing.”
He added, “In 2019, the Syrian government forces, with Russian support, besieged several Turkish military sites that were placed to prevent their advance. However, the government forces surpassed those posts and forced them to withdraw. To be honest, we have no trust in the Turkish forces.”
At that time, Turkey pledged not to withdraw its forces in the areas its controls. However, it started doing so on Oct. 1, 2020 under pressure from Russia.
Protests
On Oct. 8, many residents of the town of Termanin in northern Idlib protested in front of a Turkish military post near the town, following shelling by government forces. The shelling resulted in the death and injury of more than 15 civilians and displaced 15,000 locals and IDPs from the town.
Muhammad Anjari told North Press that the protesters demanded a clarification from the Turkish forces on the escalation in the area.
Anjari, 41, a resident in Termanin, said, “On the first day, the Turkish forces at the post refused to answer the residents and just made a promise to us.”
The promise stated that “Turkish officers would convey the protesters’ demands to the leadership in Turkey in order to clarify to them the recent developments in the area.”
The protesters rejected this way of addressing their calls and demanded to talk to a Turkish officer in-person but no official came out of the post to meet them. As a result, the protesters returned on the second day, which forced one of the officers to come out and speak with many of them.
Anjari added that the Turkish officer, accompanied by his translator, came out in front of the post and spoke to the protestors. He said that the Turkish forces are in Idlib to protect the residents and prevent the advancement of the Syrian government forces, but at the same time, they cannot take any action without orders from their command centers in Turkey.
“The protestors were told that their demands are being delivered to the Ministry of Defense in Turkey and he [the officer] confirmed that the ministry takes everything into consideration. However, he refused to answer the question of whether the Syrian government forces want to advance in the area, which in fact does not bode well,” Anjari stated.
In an exclusive statement to North Press, military expert and Syrian opposition leader Colonel Mustafa Bakor, said that he does not expect any military operation by the government forces and their allies in Idlib in the near future due to internationally agreed-upon protocols.
Bakor told North Press that “this cannot be completely dismissed, as the Syrian government forces, Russia, and Iran cannot be trusted and they are well known for their treacherous nature.”