QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – With the continuation of protests of Suwayda Governorate in southern Syria, protesters have stepped up their demands. The incidents bring back to minds the start of the demonstration of 2011, and with the expansion of the protests, the following questions are raised: What is the strategy of the protesters? How long can they last? What are the possible results of the protests?
“We are all set to go forward in this revolution to the bitter end and to oust the regime or to put the Resolution 2254 into practice,” Suhail Thubyan, former political prisoner and fine artist commented on the questions.
He added, “the only hope for us is to keep going on the protests until the world response our voice, as we do not accept any truce before meeting our people’s demands,” adding in Druze accent that “the Security Council shall keep its decision in a cool and dry place to the very end.”
Suwayda is just part of it
Adel al-Hadi, a lawyer, told North Press that “since the early days of the outbreak of the protests here in Suwayda, we were keen to shed light on all the Syrian suffering, as these protests come as a continuation of 2011 that included demanding freedom, dignity, transition of power democratically, not the other outcomes known by all.”
“People’s endeavors and voice this time will be heard, as the government sent some representatives to us, but we reiterated that our demands are for all Syria and they are represented in the Resolution 2254,” al-Hadi said.
We got used to disappointments
Hadi said that some countries started to pay attention to what is happening in Suwayda particularly, and in southern Syria generally, and there were briefings at the UN Security Council meeting. “This means that there is some kind of attention.”
“However,” he added, “we got used to disappointments by the countries they once supported the Syrian people.”
Qarqut told North Press that the real trigger of people to protest was the desire to live in dignity, and “this is the demand of all Syrians.”
“The range of demands expanded in accordance with the protest expanding across Syria, to shout obviously to oust the regime of al-Assad as a result of demonization of all Syrian oppositions by listing them in the list of American or Israeli proxies,” he noted, stressing, “we have no intention to establish an independent Druze autonomy, and we underscore the need to maintain Syria united at large.”
How long protests may last
Qarqut pointed out that there is no person can tell for how long the protests may last or lead to what path. “It attributes to the specificity of the southern region in Syria, the regime’s reaction to such demonstrations like paying no attention to the legitimate demands of the people, and further accusations of treason.”
“The remarkable aspect of the protests is that the people are insistent to embody the slogans of living with dignity. On the other hand, the regime deals with these protests with endless ignoring and letting the things flow although the pro-Syrian government groups in Suwayda started warning of consequences of the protests,” Qarqut indicated.
These warnings mean that the “regime” sooner or later, will not leave the protesters without its intervention and will not allow them to express their demands for long time, perhaps the “regime will use the usual approach of cracking down the protestors and intimidate them by all means.”
Situation to deteriorate further
Regarding the international response, Qarqut said, “What is happening in Suwayda in particular, and in Syria in general, is outside the international interest,” adding that this may be “a positive point as it prevents any external interventions, which dispels the false narrative that some pro-regime analysts have been reiterating.”
Regarding his expectations on the response of the government, he added, “I do not expect the regime to respond to the demands of the protesters due to its economic incapacity and its unwillingness to achieve a political transition according to Resolution 2254. Therefore, it is likely that the situation will further deteriorate, and Suwayda will witness a military campaign to forcefully suppress the protesters. Thus, the best solution is a dialogue based on people’s right to live with dignity.”
Potential support from other areas
Journalist and politician Hossam al-Baram believes that the protesters in Suwayda are starting to sense significant support from Daraa and other governorates, as well as support from the Arab community.
There is a political movement at the US and Arab levels although it has not been publicly disclosed. If the protests continue, this movement could potentially yield results. However, the outcome depends on various factors, including the response from the Syrian government, the expansion of the protests, and the reaction of areas on the Syrian coast. The current speculation is that if the coastal areas become involved in the protests, it could trigger significant changes in the situation, according to al-Baram.
However, the stumbling block in this matter is the “mixing of cards” by the Russians and the Iranians, or rather a possible escalation by both parties, the journalist added.
The government does not have anything to negotiate with Suwayda or other governorates “to present as a solution to this problem,” according to al-Baram. Therefore, “its only solution is a comprehensive war coordinated with the Iranians.”
The politician speculated that the target of this move could be the areas where US forces are present and described such a step, if it occurs, as “madness from the regime” in order to overcome the political and economic difficulties it faces, and it may not have decisive results, but it is the only available opportunity for it.
This time Suwayda
Nasr Abu Nabout, a former politician and diplomat, said that what is new in the southern Syrian uprising, which has not stopped since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, is its emergence this time in Suwayda in a noticeable and attention-grabbing manner, which has made Syrians react to it with greater importance than previous times.
Abu Nabout believes that these protests will achieve important results, at the very least, they will change this stagnant and sterile situation, especially on the political side. The countries involved in the Syrian file, particularly the US, will have a say in the issue of moving the Syrian file, especially in the Geneva process and Resolution 2254. There will be new approaches where the US shifts from crisis management to finding serious solutions to the entire issue.
Saqr al-Mulhem, a former diplomat, believes that the results of the popular uprising in Suwayda will be determined by the resilience of the protesters and the participation of those who are still hesitant in supporting their families there.
Al-Mulhem does not exclude the possibility that if the demonstrations continue, there will be “important results on the Syrian and international levels, reopening the Syrian issue in the corridors of the United Nations and in the countries of the region and the countries that hold the Syrian file and considering it as a case of a people rising up to reclaim their freedom and escape from injustice and oppression, rather than a case of the regime versus the opposition.”
He also indicated that the results remain linked to “how the regime deals with the popular movement in the coming days and the protesters’ ability to continue, especially since they no longer have much to lose.”