Ahmad Rahhal
Observers and followers of American moves in eastern Syria can understand the recent American escalation in Syria and all their places of deployment in the Middle East without the need of any statements by any American Generals to say, with a stern warning, that the American response against any Iranian harassment will be supported by the Global Coalition and the American forces, and that it will be five times of previous responses. It is an obvious letter about the number of American reinforcements, seriousness of trainings, and impact of maneuvers that have been recently conducted with its local allies that aim at planning new goals that the US prepare to put them into practice.
Therefore, the criticisms directed to the American strategy in Syria describing it as “lost” and “unclear” have decreased, so there are new American strategic features that may the US Central Command in the Middle East was forced to outline them after a series of military-field threats in many areas of Syria. Those threats are conducted by Iranian militias with an announced Russian support. The attack launched by Iranian drones on the US military base of Kharab al-Jer in al-Ya’rubiyah countryside, northeast of Hasakah, had a negative impact, and it coincided with Russian moves on the Syrian territories in cooperation with Iran through developing, training the Iranian militias and delivering them Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) which are Coalition anti-tanks in eastern Euphrates. The Russian move has become explicit, as it aims at making the military Syrian scene an arena of attrition of the American forces as a response and revenge of what the latter’s support for the Ukrainian forces that have been in a war against Russia for more than a year in which Russia has suffered enormous losses that affected Putin’s army and the political status of Russia.
In the context of the American military moves and reinforcements, swarms of modern American aircrafts arrived at US bases in the Middle East, followed by the latest American submarine (USS Virginia) carrying 154 Tomahawk missiles to support US forces in the region. That deployment was accompanied by “qualitative” military reinforcements delivered to eastern Euphrates and al-Tanf garrison. More than 1,200 convoys of weapons and ammunition have been confirmed to have reached US bases since the beginning of this year. They were accompanied by conducting joint maneuvers with local allies including Free Army of Syria, al-Sanadid Forces, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), where new American equipment such as Bradley vehicles, tanks, missile system of M142 HIMARS and shoulder-launched air-defense missiles. Followers do not need more effort to realize that these military exercises and equipment indicate a larger goal beyond targeting the weakened and nearly non-existent ISIS, however, the main target appears to be Iranian militias, as leaked Western reports point out a US-Israeli consensus that Iran’s presence in Syria exceeds its initial goal of protecting the Assad’s regime from collapse, and the situation raises concerns about Iran’s expansionist activities near the occupied Golan border and Jordanian borders with Syria, posing potential threats to American and Israeli interests in the region. Moreover, there are warnings about building dangerous infrastructures by Iran in Syrian territories for drug manufacturing, preparation, transportation, and smuggling to all surrounding countries of Syria which could affect the neighboring countries, including those around the Mediterranean especially after the control of Iranian militias on the most Syrian air, land and maritime borders with consensus with the Syrian regime.
The former US envoy for Syria and retired Colonel, Joel Rayburn, says that the biggest strategic mistake of the Democrats and President Obama was giving up the southern areas of Syria to Russia, the Assad regime, and Iran adding that trusting in Russian promises to distance Iran from the Golan Heights and the Jordanian borders was a serious error. He went on saying that the danger of that move is that we cannot reform it. However, recent military and intelligence leaks were reported by Western media point out that there are American plans, including those being worked on by the US and Israeli defense ministries, for a military alternative operation against Iran in case the nuclear negotiations with Tehran fail. There may be significant airstrikes targeting Iran’s military capabilities both inside and outside its territory, necessitating the preparation of US forces in the entire Middle East region, especially in areas where there are confrontations with Iranian militias, as seen in Syria. Hence, recent trainings and preparations were essential.
Some say that expanding the conflict with Iran is not a current US goal due to the upcoming American elections in 2024, and that the management of Democrats cannot be as adventure with a war which has unknown results that may negatively affect the electoral implications, however, there are alternative approaches to address the Iranian militias’ processes in Syria, where the focus has shifted to limited military operations against Iranian militias and creating zones in certain areas between 55 area and the city of Abu Kamal on the Syrian-Iraqi borders and extends to the al-Tanf garrison in eastern Euphrates. Also, the military operation may expand to Jordanian borders through Suwayda countryside to make the whole Jordanian borders even remotely under the control of the Coalition forces to stop the activities of Iran and the trade of captagon.
However, questions are raised about the effectiveness of American airplanes and Israeli air forces strikes in decisively ending the conflict and whether there are suitable ground forces to implement strategic objectives after the airstrikes.
Which ground forces will have the influence on the ground? As we consider that ground forces are the forces which prove their abilities and the results of airstrikes.
Some sources stated that the Global Coalition and the US Department of Defense realize that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have stated their rejection to participate in any war outside eastern Euphrates, in which they have an obvious position and a previous decision about it, and have strong conviction that rushing into foreign wars against Iran, Hezbollah and al-Assad’s regime may destroy the eastern Euphrates and that was what they try to avoid in all periods of the Syrian Revolution, in which they chose to reach understandings with military intelligence of al-Assad’s regime to leave the “Security Squares” for the safety of the towns and cities, where the Syrian regime previously stroke and destroyed eastern Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, Idlib, Daraa and other cities and towns. The SDF have reiterated this principle by a statement to al-Arabiya Al-Hadath TV Channel lately, in which it said its forces would not participate in any expected American operation against Iran in western Euphrates, but the position of the SDF may not prevent the American forces and the Global Coalition to find the alternative. The matter seemed clearly by consensuses which have conducted recently between al-Sanadid Forces led by the SDF and the Free Army of Syria, or through brigade of Raqqa Revolutionaries or through new military regroupings supported by some parties are known as the tribal force. All of them are forces that may represent a temporary alternative for the SDF if Washington wanted to resolve the battle in eastern Syria, however, information was leaked about new American-Turkish agreements including relocation of some factions of the Syrian National Army (SNA) from northwestern Syria to al-Tanf garrison to be a part of the ground forces participating in battles of eastern Syria against Iranian militias. Will Washington settle it and redraw new maps of influence in Syria that put pressure on al-Assad’s regime and its allies to accept a long-awaited Syrian political solution for Syrians, or all what is happening and leaks about war drums in eastern Syria may merely be strategic pressure tactics for US-Iranian negotiations taking place secretly in various capitals and places.