QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) – After achieving all his goals including lifting immunity of the Kurdish activists in Sweden, lifting the ban on the F-15 purchase, and the approval of European Union membership, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan approved Sweden’s bid for NATO membership and turned his back to Russia.
Ukraine and Azov commanders
This has been made clear when the Turkish president received his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a few days ago and allowed him to take home five commanders of Azov Regiment who had been kept in Turkey under the terms of a prisoner swap agreement. The five commanders surrendered to Russian forces last year following Russia’s capture of Mariupol. Under a Turkish-brokered prisoner swap, they were supposed to remain in Turkey until the end of the conflict.
However, Russia denounced the move naming it as a violation of the deal with Turkey. It said Ankara had promised to keep the commanders in Turkey and complained that it had not been informed.
Furthermore, Russian senator, Viktor Bondarev, said Turkey had turned into ‘Unfriendly Country’. He accused the Turkish government of stabbing Russia in the back and described the handover of Azov commanders as one of a series of “stupid and impulsive decisions” by Erdogan.
Sweden NATO approval
Although NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg’s denial, Erdogan stipulated his country’s approval of Sweden’s bid to join NATO to Turkey’s membership in the European Union (EU). Stoltenberg stated that Erdogan and Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf Kristersson, worked closely together to address Ankara’s “legitimate security concerns.”
“As part of that process, Sweden has amended its constitution, changed its laws, significantly expanded its counterterrorism operation against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and resumed its arms exports to Turkey,” Stoltenberg added.
F-16 transfer to Turkey
The recent developments mentioned at the beginning of the article are no coincidence, and they were accompanied by behind-the-scenes diplomacy. One part of that diplomacy is moving forward towards the potential sale of F-16 fighter jets to Ankara – a request that had become linked to the question of Sweden’s membership to NATO.
In October 2021, Turkey requested to buy 40 Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) F-16 fighter jets and nearly 80 modernization kits for its existing warplanes. In January 2023, the Biden administration informally notified the Congress of its intention to sell the jets to Turkey.
A day after Ankara approved Sweden’s joining to NATO, Biden phoned Erodgan from Air Force One en route to London on July 9 to discuss both Stockholm’s NATO membership and the F-16 sale.
“President Biden has been clear consistently that he believes that, for the alliance and for the US-Turkey bilateral relationship, moving forward with the sale makes sense,” US National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters, adding, “ Biden intends move forward with that transfer in consultation with Congress.”
Grain deal
“Turkey doesn’t want the Turkish-Russian relationship to be badly hurt, but this will inevitably have an impact on relations. After the election Erdogan feels he has more room for maneuver,” Galip Dalay at the Chatham House think-tank told Reuters.
Reuters discusses that Erdogan’s ties with Putin have loomed large in diplomacy surrounding the war in Ukraine, helping him broker a deal for safe export of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
But that deal, which Moscow has threatened to quit due to what it says is the West’s broken promise to remove obstacles to Russian grain and fertilizer exports, is due to expire on July 17, and there is no indication of any meeting between Erdogan and Putin to discuss the renewal of the deal.
Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said on July 10 that there were currently no plans for Putin to meet Erdogan to discuss renewing the deal, and it was not known when Putin might visit Turkey.
It is worth mentioning that Ankara refused the Western sanctions against Moscow over Ukraine invasion, and the latter sees the former as a major source of tourism and a trade partner. However, no matter how both countries are important to each other
EU membership
Despite Turkey’s tend to the West, Russia shows intention to develop relations with Turkey.
“Turkey can be orientated towards the West, we know that in the history of the Republic of Turkey there have been periods of intense orientation towards the West, there have been periods of less intense orientation,” Peskov said. “But we also know that… no one wants to see Turkey in Europe, I mean the Europeans. And here our Turkish partners should not wear rose-tinted spectacles either.”
Turkey is officially a candidate for membership in the EU, a status it has held for two decades. The process was practically frozen in 2018, cementing a kind of frenemy status between the bloc and its neighbor to the east.
Many European governments have shown little enthusiasm for reviving the process.
“That’s a question [EU membership] that is not related to the other issue [Sweden’s bid], and therefore I think this should not be seen as a related matter,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said curtly before leaving the annual NATO summit in Lithuania, where the drama had all unfolded.
While European Commission spokeswoman Dana Spinant said, “You cannot link the two processes.”
“Turkey wants the European Union to play a role in economic recovery. ‘Let’s revitalize Turkey-EU relations’ is an indirect way of saying this,” Reuters cited Evren Balta, a professor of international relations at Ozyegin University as saying.
Russia-Turkey stepping back
Expanding NATO bloc, expanding EU bloc, purchasing F-16, and handing over Azov commanders were all decisions made by Turkey overnight that frustrated Russia.
“Turkey has humiliated Russia very visibly, recommitted itself to the West, and kept NATO united in its opposition to Russian expansionism,” Timur Kuran, political science professor at Duke University in North Carolina, told Newsweek. “In the process, it has compounded Russia’s isolation.”
However, analysts discuss that Russia may not take any retaliatory measures against Turkey because it hopes Turkey to be a regional gas hub and remains a safe haven for Russian oligarchs who have been ostracized by the West, according to the Newsweek.