{"id":138437,"date":"2026-06-17T09:42:50","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T09:42:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/npasyria.com\/en\/?p=138437"},"modified":"2026-06-17T09:42:51","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T09:42:51","slug":"syrias-transition-offers-opportunities-for-isis-to-rebuild-experts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/npasyria.com\/en\/138437\/","title":{"rendered":"Syria\u2019s transition offers opportunities for ISIS to rebuild \u2013 Experts \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) \u2013<\/strong> Researchers and experts on extremist organizations have warned that the Islamic State (ISIS) continues to pose a significant threat in Syria, arguing that the group retains the capabilities needed to sustain security and military operations while taking advantage of the political and security conditions surrounding the country\u2019s transitional period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The warnings come a day after ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack targeting an oil tanker near the northern Syrian city of Manbij.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier this week, two members of Syria\u2019s Interior Ministry were killed and several others injured in a suicide bombing targeting a security facility in Raqqa Governorate, northern Syria. State-run al-Ikhbariya news channel reported that security forces eliminated one of the attackers, while the second detonated an explosive vest after being surrounded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Long-term threat<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ahmed Sultan, a researcher specializing in terrorism and extremist groups, said eastern Syria has historically been one of ISIS\u2019s most active areas, both during the height of the group\u2019s territorial control and in the years that followed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Speaking to North Press, Sultan noted that ISIS established extensive networks and sleeper cells across the region and continues to represent a long-term security threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, he argued that a return to the group&#8217;s previous model\u2014seizing large territories and declaring a so-called \u201cWilayah\u201d or state\u2014is unlikely in the current environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cISIS has shifted toward a strategy of attrition warfare,\u201d Sultan said. \u201cThe group is focused on rebuilding itself and developing its capabilities for the future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Decentralized leadership model<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Sultan, ISIS is expected to continue pursuing a strategy based on chaos and prolonged attrition while seeking to recruit new supporters, fighters, and sympathizers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe organization has transferred much of its operational center of gravity to Africa, particularly West Africa and the Sahel region,\u201d he said. \u201cAt the same time, Syria remains an important base for leadership and strategic direction, even as the group increasingly embraces decentralized command structures.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Syria and Iraq as the \u201cHead\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sultan rejected the notion that Syria has become a secondary arena for ISIS, describing it instead as a core theater alongside Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe organization views Syria and Iraq as the \u2018head,\u2019 while Africa and Asia represent the \u2018arms,\u2019\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He added that ISIS is likely to continue targeting security personnel through attrition-style attacks and may seek to exploit the presence of foreign fighters in Syria by encouraging them to join its ranks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAll of this makes ISIS a serious threat to Syria\u2019s current authorities and to broader regional security and stability,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Instability fuels extremism<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Muneer Adeeb, an Egypt-based expert on extremist organizations, argued that Syria\u2019s ongoing instability has created conditions favorable to militant groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He pointed to the fragility of state institutions and tensions surrounding the participation of Syria\u2019s diverse religious and ethnic communities in political life as factors contributing to uncertainty and disorder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSyria remains in a transitional phase, and such environments often provide fertile ground for extremist groups, especially ISIS,\u201d Adeeb told North Press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cISIS has benefited\u2014and continues to benefit\u2014from the instability that persists in Syria,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kurdish role<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adeeb emphasized the significant role played by Kurdish forces in combating ISIS over the past decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He argued that tensions between the central government and Kurdish actors, coupled with what he described as insufficient Kurdish participation in constitutional processes, parliamentary elections, and state institutions, may create openings that allow the extremist group to remain active.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe continuation of these conditions could affect Syria\u2019s political future and may contribute to bringing the organization back to the forefront,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Need for inclusive governance<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adeeb stressed that addressing these challenges requires broader political participation by all Syrian communities, stronger state institutions, and more inclusive policies that ensure representation across the country&#8217;s diverse social and political spectrum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Such measures, he said, would help reduce the governance and security gaps that extremist organizations exploit to reorganize and expand their activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe success of Syria\u2019s transitional period depends on the ability of political forces to reach comprehensive national consensus and address the causes of tension and division,\u201d Adeeb said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAny delay in implementing political and security reforms could provide extremist groups with additional opportunities to exploit the current situation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>By Abdulsalam Khoja<\/strong><\/h2>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) \u2013 Researchers and experts on extremist organizations have warned that the Islamic State (ISIS) continues to pose a significant threat in Syria, arguing that the group retains the capabilities needed to sustain security and military operations while taking advantage of the political and security conditions surrounding the country\u2019s transitional period. The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":138439,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pgc_sgb_lightbox_settings":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[39,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-138437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-home","category-reports"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Syria\u2019s transition offers opportunities for ISIS to rebuild \u2013 Experts \u00a0<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"QAMISHLI, Syria (North Press) \u2013 Researchers and experts on extremist organizations have warned that the Islamic State (ISIS) continues to pose a\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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