Over the past eight years, Syria has been subjected to a political, economic and social storm due to the wrong handling of all the internal political parties with the popular movement and its rightful demands for democratic change, especially the previous approach of the government was unable to take the country out of the bottleneck of the backwardness, and putting it on the course of progress like other countries that have independence in conjunction with or after the independence of Syria. Taking up arms and following the path of violence by these parties, hasn't only destroyed Syrians' dream of this change, but it has also put the country and the people as hostages to the external powers, as each internal party has become a hostage to one or several intervening and active powers in the Syrian crisis.
Not only the Syrian social fabric, but also the economic structure of the state and its human, natural and capital resources have been affected by this poor situation, which can be said that, the internal political situation during the past years was only a serious reflection of the socio-economic situation and the societal rift in general. This situation has created an adverse pressuring power on the socio-economic situation, sometimes by influencing external forces due to the struggle for sharing gains, and at other times by influencing internal forces in the socio-economic decision as a result of its struggle for the remaining resources, with a flagrant absence of any scientific methodology to deal with the socio-economic crises and proper planning of spending in the war conditions.
Because of the lack of transparency, credibility and integrity, the Syrian people, individuals and organizations don't know anything about the form and size of the payments of the internal parties to the external ones: how the Syrian government pays the bills to Russia and Iran, bills of the Autonomous Administration of northeastern Syria to the United States, and bills of the Interim Government of the Syrian National Coalition and the Salvation Government of al-Nusra Front (al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria) in north-west of Syria to Turkey.
All these bills, before, now and in the future, are paid by the Syrian people from their living flesh, national soil, quality of their life and their national wealth. The decrease of the Syrian pound (lira) over the past eight years has affected all indicators of the national economy, whether due to the war conditions and the large losses in the resulting national products, the consumption of the reserves of the Central Bank of foreign currencies to spend on them and to pay parts of their bills, or as a result of speculation on the dollar by the government, the traders and money exchangers.
However, the rapid acceleration in the collapse of the exchange rate in a short period, not exceeding several months reaching the threshold of a thousand pounds to one dollar (with the possibility of falling or improving the exchange rate because the player is one, the government, and the game is intentional and maintained) portends the risk of a major social economic collapse that doesn't.
Also, rumors, gossips and sayings play a negative role in this context, as they create a state of panic and anticipation that affects consuming and investing spending of the individuals and groups, erosion of community savings, and crazy rise in prices accompanied by market chaos, spread of economic and criminal organized crime.
The exchange rate of the monetary unit, such as securities, stocks, bonds, etc., is very sensitive and influenced by rumors and gossips, especially if the rumors are from an official source in the state, or a senior official, as well as experts and knowledgeable about the matter, both familiar economists, financial analysts, financiers, money exchangers and reputable dealers. Not to mention that, today's social media allows everyone to become knowledgeable of the economy, money and the subtleties of the government's fiscal and monetary policies.
Everyone is showing his wish and according to his desire, this one falls the lira to the level of two thousand against the dollar, and that one raises it to five hundred against the dollar, the third promises the audience and followers to return the lira to the previous era when he set the example (how are you? Like the lira), and fourth, fifth in addition to tens, hundreds and thousands who analyze the comprehensible and incomprehensible, the known and the unknown. At the same time, there is a deliberate silence that is intentional, incomprehensible, and raises a thousand questions, in which the state is supposed to speak, explain, justify, cause and offer solutions and prescriptions favorable to save the lira from its crisis, or at least hear by their mind and ears for those who, in good faith, have taken the initiative to study and to provide advice and guidance to stop the deterioration of the value of the lira and its serious repercussions on prices, production, exports and the livelihood of the Syrian people, and the Syrian state.
A state unable to stop the deterioration of its national currency is a failed state par excellence, and its government is inevitably lapsed because the collapse of the monetary system affects badly, not only a category, a class or a social segment, but it affects everyone without exception, but in different proportions.
If the state punches the mouths of the concerned and expert people or practices various security and life harassment against those who initiate with their national sense and sense of scientific responsibility to search, study, express opinions and provide appropriate solutions, then it will lose its essence as a state, and becomes a jolt if it falls into the abyss of sliding and flying without being sorry.
The monetary system in Syria, including the exchange rate of the monetary unit, is strictly administered by the government represented by the Monetary and Credit Council and the Central Bank (Monetary Authority). This authority, as it is known, doesn't enjoy autonomy under totalitarian and individual regimes held, which is contrary to democratic regimes. It is entrusted with managing and directing everything related to the volume of money in circulation, the reserves of gold and convertible currencies, and the exchange rate of the currency unit. It also controls the presentation of foreign currencies in circulation because it has the keys of the exchange market, which no one can break into from outside the cash and security managed system or without its permission.
What is said that, the government wants to float the lira (abandoning the managed system), and leaving it to the forces of supply and demand controlling it without interference from the monetary authority, is also in the cycle of rumors and sayings left by the government to take its range, and perhaps contributed to the lion's share, to implement economic objectives associated with its desire to increase its foreign currency reserves, out of the pockets of the Syrians to face the coming benefits of a political solution and the reconstruction, and to pay the bills of the foreign intervention in the Syrian issue.
But it must be warned in this context that, the float of the lira at the time of sinking, accelerates the fall to the bottom through swirling fluctuations of the exchange rate, which weighs on the drowning and dragging it with great force and speed.
*Dr. Moheeb Salhah is a Syrian writer and academic - professor of economics, and the former dean of the Faculty of Business Administration.