DARAA/SUWAYDA (North Press ) – South Syria, a region far away from outside meddling, has been at the cusp of political developments in Syria for months. The protest-prone region has been a testing ground for local solutions based on a self-determination.
The idea for an autonomous administration in the south of the country “is not strange,” says journalist and author Hafez Karkout. “It has been floated for years.”
The idea is becoming popular once again, Karkout explains, “as the crisis, aggravated by the ruling regime, grows.”
Karkout says the impasse in the north has pushed Arab countries such as Jordan to re-consider political solutions for Syria, as the conflict could drag on for years. Until now, they have limited themselves to securing the border and trying to curb captagon smuggling.
An autonomous administration in Syria’s south, including Daraa, Qunaitra and Suwayda, could be a solution.
Karkout says a local autonomous administration could “develop as international interests converge and as Syrians seek to govern themselves, amid the failure of the central government and its militias.”
Karkout expressed his belief that any autonomous administration, if taken seriously, could be “a solution for the south of Syria to get rid of the regime’s extortion and its oppression of the region’s population.”
Al-Assad and an autonomous administration
Amid the economic collapse of the Syrian government, and the destruction of infrastructure and vital facilities, “The Syrian government seeks to find a solution to its economic crisis and give up areas to retain others.”
Karkout says it is likely that the regime could benefit from the idea of an autonomous administration to get rid of economic burdens, but only if it remains attached to centralized leadership. In addition, the government could relieve itself from the burdens of dealing with protests, as it would transfer this responsibility to the local administration.
According to Karkout, the government could try to “exploit the corrupt people which it has been nurturing in the south over the past 50 years, in the case that an autonomous administration is built, to make them take part in decision-making.”
Another gain would be exploiting humanitarian aid which would be sent by regional countries and NGOs to these areas in case this administration materialized, according to Karkout.
However, the Syrian author rules out that such an administration could “help the regime evade captagon sanctions, as that decision would not be reversed.”
Politician and academician Fayez al-Qantar says the main reason that has pushed the population to consider or accept the idea of a local administration in the south of the country is their current unsafe living conditions.
Previously, “A local governance law had been introduced by the Baath party, before the al-Assad took power, but had been cast aside after the ruling family came to power, in the name of centralization.”
The politician does not rule out that the “regime could establish an autonomous administration in the south, led by its agents, in order to avoid getting entangled in the region.”
As for international positions regarding this idea, al-Qantar indicates that the “Russians disregard Syrian territorial integrity, except for demarches. It is Russia that calls for a federated kind of governance.”
Al-Qantar believes “Iran’s interest are attached to that of the al-Assad regime, which secures its presence and freedom of movement on Syrian soil.”
Based on this, al-Qantar expects “Iran will not remain inactive in the case that a change in the south reduces Iranian influence.”
The situation on the ground
Fayez al-Qantar says that the governorate of Suwayda “does not have the necessary pillars that could make it stand as an independent administration. However, if it reaches a communal agreement and is able to run its affairs independently, it could solve its locals issues.”
The situation is much the same in Daraa. Ali al-Zo’bi, a notable from the governorate, told North Press that all that is being said on the project is merely anticipations and analyses that have no basis on what is happening on the ground.
Ali added the Syrian regime passed Law 107 in 2014 which allows for the formation of governorates and heads of municipalities, but not administrations.
Any autonomous administration “will have nothing to do with security, army and finance. It will be attached to the Local Governance Ministry; this is what the regime seeks.”
Al-Zo’bi emphasized that the “project of an autonomous administration will not be successful in the south and only create anarchic chaos, unless a unified authority is introduced.”
Al-Zo’bi indicated that the “Syrian regime wants to create an administration. But that does not appeal to us. It has been squeezed into the corner and wants an exit. It has not been able to control the south. It wants to get rid of it in a way that appeals to it, not as the people want.”
In the same vein, Abdullah al-Asaad, head of the Rasd Institute for Strategic Studies, told North Press that in the current situation, “an autonomous administration is unviable in the south of Syria.”
“Such a proposal is an attempt by Bashar al-Assad to avert [UN Security Council Resolution] 2254 or abide by any political solution,” he noted.